Chapter 276 Watching the Big Drama

Professor Dai agreed, looked down at the small piece of paper, and briefly introduced: "Su Dong believes that the United States is very well prepared for war and diplomatic preparations, and will take various measures to avoid the third oil crisis. Therefore, oil prices before the war will fall. I think that at the beginning of the war, the United States will take a big advantage, but with the expansion of the ground war, the oil fields of Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries will be in danger. In particular, oil pipelines, oil pipelines and high-yield oil wells are likely to be targeted, and the result is unpredictable.

Su Zhenguo said "um" and looked at Su Cheng, as if he were going to host the debate.

With so many senior cadres, it is difficult for Su Cheng to see one on a daily basis. He didn't want to offend him, so he smiled and said, "I don't know much about war, but I want to say a little. The production capacity of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela and other countries is very large. Previously, it was limited by OPEC and failed to play. Once the war begins, there is no need to wait for it to start. They are now over-producing crude oil, with an extra 5 million barrels a day, which can fully make up for the losses of Iraq and Kuwait. Therefore, in terms of supply and demand, there will be no shortage of oil. If the bad situation mentioned by Professor Dai does not happen, is it possible for oil prices to go down instead?

As a policy researcher, Professor Dai admits that what Su Cheng said is reasonable, but this is too contrary to common sense.

Is there a war in the Middle East, and oil prices will not rise?

Are you all playing?

However, if crude oil production does not decrease and the scope of the war does not expand, what is the reason for oil prices to rise?

The scholars in the Policy Research Office thought silently. Leaders who are cautious will naturally not speak. On the contrary, Wang Lizhen deliberately made trouble and said, "I don't know anything about war, but what you said can be done in one day or two days, one month, two months, three months and five months. Has the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries become a decoration? They have to re-limit production. Rising oil prices is also good for them, isn't it?

Wang Lizhen is the daughter of the boss of Changning Infrastructure. After Changning Infrastructure was annexed by COSCO Shipping, Wang Lianjun took up an idle position. I'm going to tease the grass every day. Although the strength of the mother's family is weak, the origin of Wang Lizhen's official eunuch family has not disappeared, and the domestic and international policy situation. She can also speak better than ordinary officials.

In a group of women in the Su family, she is one of the few to hold leadership positions. Therefore, this statement is also very powerful.

In the outsider's ears, it still looks the same.

Sucheng just gave a light sentence: "Low oil prices are what Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates want."

"Does the seller still think the goods are expensive?" Wang Lizhen smiled.

But she soon found that the big and small scholars of the policy research center over there did not laugh.

Professor Dai seemed to wake up, coughed, and explained in a gentle tone: "Within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are the same. They have high oil reserves, a small population, poor geographical environment, and a weak ability to attract foreign investment. Therefore, they pursue a low oil price policy. The purpose is to curb the development of alternative energy sources in order to sell huge oil resources as soon as possible. Countries such as Iran, Libya and Iraq have relatively small oil reserves, large population, good geographical location and environment, so. They hope to sell oil at the highest possible price and get the funds needed for economic construction. Among them, $30 is a threshold, such as alternative energy sources such as ethanol, which requires more than $30 per barrel of oil to be profitable..."

With that, Professor Dai's thinking was also clear. He said, "Does Dong Su think that there are no other factors that affect oil prices except the war itself?"

Without Sucheng's answer, he continued: "The excuse for Iraq's invasion of Kuwait is that Kuwait's large amount of overproduction of crude oil has caused a sharp drop in oil prices. The current situation is that Saudi Arabia and other countries have attracted the United States. If they defeat, OPEC will definitely be under the control of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries. Iraq, Iran and other countries are expected to give up their high oil price policies... So, if the direct consequences of the war are not serious, oil prices will recover quickly, right?

How could Su Cheng think so much? He smiled and said, "It's almost the same. I want to return to war, and oil production belongs to oil production. In a country like Saudi Arabia, where a needle can be injected, the oil production system is still very strong. The most vulnerable place is still the traffic line, but Iraq can't be blocked for a long time.

With Professor Dai's foreshadowing, Su Cheng's thoughts were immediately raised. The relaxed state has been praised by everyone. Not every young man in his 20s can have a clear idea on the "Jinluan Hall" without being surprised by honor and disgrace.

Wang Lizhen was speechless. Zhu Enbo, Director Huang and others also fell into deep thinking.

They are not afraid that oil prices will plummet at this moment. After all, Su Cheng and Professor Dai are also describing medium- and long-term judgments. In their opinion, the question now is the choice of profit margin, when and at what price to close the position...

Zhang Chao tapped his head to Su Cheng.

Su Cheng looked at the screen from afar and nodded back.

Su Zhenguo noticed this and said, "Go ahead if you have something to do. Don't worry about us."

"They can handle it well, just follow the established plan." Su Cheng doesn't care about the Su family, but he can't ignore so many senior cadres. Dahua Industry still needs to muddle along in the country. Although there is no need to pat the horse, you can't put the labels of "maverick" and "incompatible" on the door plate of Dahua Industry.

Su Zhenguo invited so many people just to see Su City, so he naturally asked, "What is your established plan?"

"Every 10 minutes or so, buy an empty order of 1 million barrels." Su Cheng then explained, "I have prepared 200 million US dollars, and the full position is 2 billion US dollars. The current position is only more than 300 million, and it is still very empty. Buy an order every 10 minutes, just digest it. Moreover, oil prices are slowly rising, and delaying purchase is also more conducive to amortizing costs.

Su Dongyuan said strangely, "You see that the oil price is rising, and you still buy it down?"

From the late 1980s to the early 1990s, it can be regarded as the first year of capital in China. New things such as Zheng *zhou's grain futures trading market, Shanghai and Shenzhen, and joint-stock banks all appeared in just three or five years. At this time, the leader of the senior position has a certain understanding of this. During the Gulf crisis, many people made up lessons.

Therefore, everyone present understood the basic knowledge of the futures market, and Duan Yuanguang, Cao Jiyuan and others whispered in private.

Su Cheng had to explain: "I think it will fall soon. Once the bearish news appears, the market is likely to be smashed down by a huge number of short orders, so it is necessary to take action in advance.

"Then why do you buy it one by one?" This time, the question is about Director Mao. His status as the Development and Reform Commission has completely made up for the small gap in level.

Su Cheng smiled and said, "I don't know when the inflection point of oil price will appear. If you keep pulling up, there will be no cash in your hand. Besides, what if I make a wrong judgment?

He is telling the truth. What was the trend of oil prices before the Gulf War? He had only a general impression, about $32, which was inferred from other data. God knew how much the right could be. He originally thought that the right was only $33. However, the reality is that the oil price on the London Stock Exchange exceeds $33, which is reasonable and unexpected.

However, if all the funds are pressed up and the thief is unreasonable, the accident will make people vomit blood.

His idea is unknown to others, but Su Cheng said such a sentence in the confident gap, which made people laugh.

Su Zhenguo smiled and said, "I'm not sure, just don't invest so much."

Su Cheng took it for granted, "I'm sure of it. If you don't dare to press it all, you shouldn't go to the gambling table!"

In a word, the whisper suddenly disappeared. Su's heavy generals nodded one after another, not how good Su Cheng said, but the same personality. The members of the Su family led by Su Zhenguo have always been a tough faction that dares to fight. Naturally, they like Su Cheng's bold, tenacious and agile personality.

After a while, Zhang Chao motioned to Su Cheng again.

Su Cheng is still an action of looking at the watch, and then nodding.

After Zhang Chao confirmed, he decomposed the task. The trader of Dahua Strategic Division picked up the phone and dialed London, and then the traders in the City of London over there completed the real purchase process.

Unlike the new century, in the futures exchange in 1991, there was still a certain delay of about half a minute in the process of people to data before traders made a successful gesture.

A Dahua's own recorder, after reconfirming, drew a small red bar on the blackboard to make a record. In addition, the word "positive" is exactly the word, which represents the 5 million barrels of crude oil purchased in the later stage.

These crude oils were purchased during the slow rise in oil prices.

At the same time, the staff of the State Reserve Material Adjustment Center also slowly ate more orders at the request of Zhu Enbo. Although there is a difference in quantity, in essence, Dahua Industry and the State Reserve Material Adjustment Center are actually in a state of gambling.

If you know, you won't break this layer of window. If you don't know, you still don't know.

Before there is no result, no one dares to say that they have chosen the right side. If you don't choose an edge, you will try to put yourself aside.

Another 10 minutes, the oil price has fluctuated several times and climbed the small threshold of $33.5. Many people cheered softly.

Su Zhenguo and others looked at Su Cheng and happened to see him nodding again.

Another red line, gently scratched on the blackboard.

Then another one, another one.

But the price of oil is still drilling up little by little.

It seems to be the opposite of it.