Chapter 638 Secret Profit

The trading pool has become more crowded.

With the price of crude oil approaching $15, many financial institutions that did not originally do crude oil futures or rarely do crude oil futures also joined. During the period, those who do hedging business, purely speculators, and insurance companies and fund companies that hold large amounts of funds all focused on the wave of oil prices. Move up.

More than 100 traders who used to work in the trading pool can no longer bear the orders of so many institutions and companies. Those institutions with surplus seats have to send traders who are qualified to enter the trading pool. For example, Sumitomo Trading Co., Ltd. is far more than a trader of Hidetomo Hirano, and the major customers of the commercial bank When participating in the requirements of crude oil trading, other traders also have to put down their office work and go shirtless.

More than 100 people have been squeezed into the trading pool the size of a basketball court. When the number of people exceeds 200, this is simply an idiot basketball court. If your chest is touched, don't scream. Other people's crotch does not shout, and the movements on your hands can't stop. The only thing to be careful is to fly all over If the dancing elbow is knocked unconscious, it will delay the opportunity.

This is also the reason why there have always been no female ** changers in the futures exchange. No matter how depressed the trading pool is, there are always times when it runs, such as a coffee trading pool. When there are few people, only a dozen traders play in it, and when there are many people, there are hundreds of people. It depends on how many

For many merchants who are currently involved in the transaction, $15 of crude oil seems to be picked up for nothing. Even if it is more cautious, it will order traders to buy it once the oil price is less than $15.

In their thinking, it is impossible for the price of crude oil to return to the 1970s. In this case, as long as you buy within $15, there will always be a few cents that make a profit of dozens of cents. Taking into account the leverage factor, the profit of 10 to 20 is simply within reach.

The goal of Kangle of British Global Petroleum to join the Pan Asia Fund is just to make a profit of about 10. The situation of the London International Crude Oil Futures Exchange is a gift from God to countless people.

Of course, there are also some customers who will ask their traders to chase up and down, follow the footsteps of the TransAsia Fund, and make small shorts in the market.

However, compared with the risk of long, the risk of shorting has been infinitely magnified in the eyes of the financial industry. In the list of new financial institutions collected by Qi Xiao, the names of long, but less than one-third of the short list.

Qi Xiao especially reminded: "HSBC, Sun Trust, Bank of Ireland, etc. on the right are all invested on behalf of customers, which is estimated to be required by customers. If their self-operated funds participate, they will probably be in the column on the left.

"So, people in the financial industry are not very optimistic about short-selling." Su Cheng commented while watching.

"Many of the financial institutions that do a lot now have strong capital and have the ability to wait for the delivery of crude oil. We are now at risk of being short." At the same time as Qi Xiao reminded him, he said in his heart: It's not just that he is not optimistic.

Su Cheng just smiled and said, "One time and one time." They now think that $15 is the reserve price, which is $14.88 cheaper. In the morning, they still think that $17.88 is cheaper. In my opinion, the more in the financial sector, the more unclear the reserve price will be... On the contrary, these spot traders may hold crude oil to delivery. Well, you make a separate list of them.

"Okay." Qi Xiao agreed, and then asked worriedly, "Su Dong, when will the new supply you mentioned appear?"

"Of course it's impossible today, and it's not a matter of a day or two to increase production."

"Not a day or two..." Qi Xiao finally understood why Su Cheng used it as a follow-up means. Without the current profit, the other six crude oil producers would not have dared to increase the crude oil production capacity.

Qi Xiao felt like he was sitting on an accelerated Concorde passenger plane. He was gray in front of him and said in a trembling voice, "Su Dong, the current market trading volume has been several times more than usual. It is rare for the bad news to persist until the close of the market. Once the market turns around and the bad news is released "."

"The market will not be so easy to turn around. The increase in the supply of crude oil is an increase. Is it possible for those financial institutions that are long to deliver crude oil? I have the risk of short-selling, and they also have the risk of doing too much. Crude oil is not gold, and it can be piled up in their own basement. Su Cheng's tone was calm, not a joke.

He is also quite sure.

Because what he got is Aqijiu, one of the top five super oil fields in the world.

In that year, after BP got Aijiu, the announcement of its reserves alone caused a fluctuation in the crude oil market. Thanks to the British's own Beihai oil field, BP adopted a step-by-step construction plan, which did not cause a devastating blow to the crude oil market. After all, Aqijiu oil field has a peak The horrible production capacity of 300,000 barrels and an annual output of 400 million barrels is comparable to the output of the later British North Sea oil field.

At that time, the Beihai oilfield had a reputation for solving the world oil crisis. In order to save the British economy and the world economy, it took only three years for the British developer to complete the task of doubling and doubling the production capacity of the Beihai oilfield in the harsh area with a wind speed of 100 knots and a height of In comparison, the long and slow development of the Azijiu oilfield for more than 10 years can only be said to be the capitalist concept of money.

Dahua Industry has not yet estimated A Qijiu's complete reserves. 3 billion barrels are only the current exploration results. Similarly, compared with its peak production capacity, the current daily production capacity also has great room for expansion.

Unlike the former BP, Dahua Industry is sure to expand the output of Aqijiu Oilfield to 1.3 million barrels or more in a few years. With the current development speed of the world economy, the result of Sucheng's doing so is doomed that the oil surplus in the 1990s will be more obvious.

At that time, even OPEC will have to bear the relatively low price of crude oil. According to the shallow estimate of Dahua Industrial Strategy Department, the price of crude oil will be reduced by 50 cents and 1 dollar. Because no oil organization can tolerate a long-term reduction of 1.3 million barrels of production capacity, which is equivalent to the national production capacity of an ordinary oil-producing country.

In fact, the production capacity at the peak of the Aziziu oilfield itself accounts for more than 30 of Azerbaijan's national production capacity, and Azerbaijan, from the pre-Soviet period, the former Soviet period to the Caspian oil-producing country, is one of the top oil-producing countries in the world.

Chavez, an old Venezuelan man who jumps and jumps in the future, relies on only three or four million barrels of daily production per day, and whenever he picks up "oil weapons", it can't be said that a barrel of oil will not be produced. Under normal circumstances, his weapons are just 300,000 to half million barrels.

What the President of the United States can't decide is not necessarily what ExxonMobil can't decide, and what ExxonMobil can't decide is not what can't be decided by Azijiu Oilfield.

Unless there are other production cuts, the supply oversupply has been achieved in the extremely inelastic market of crude oil.

If another ten years later, when China and other emerging market countries begin to show exaggerated appetite, the increment of an Aqijiu oil field may be easily digested. But in the year of 1994 when the demand for crude oil was sluggish, Aqijiu's production capacity was definitely a piece of wood that crushed the camel.

If it hadn't been for the sluggish demand for crude oil, the OPEC ministerial meeting in the first two months would not have discussed the reduction of production capacity, and Iran, Saudi Arabia and other countries would not have made an action to increase production capacity for a long time.

For example, a lot of bearish news fell in the era when the price of crude oil was more than 100 dollars, it was easy to create a drop of 20 or 30 US dollars. Now, for Sucheng, who has been aware of the crude oil futures speculation boom, the decline of three or four dollars is really nothing.

Qi Xiao's feeling was completely different. Looking at Su Cheng, he seemed to find out the madness in his expression and said, "Let's hold a heavy warehouse for the night..."

"Let the market evolve by itself in the next few days." Su Cheng interrupted him and gave the order directly. Whether it's him or a futures trader like Qi Xiao, it's a loss to compare financial methods with the guys with tens of millions of pounds in the City of London. The cold treatment experienced by the Pan-Asian Fund for the first time is the feedback of reality.

However, in the crude oil market, Su Cheng has accumulated a lot of capital. Coupled with his understanding of the future, he is not worried that his position is too heavy.

Qi Xiao returned to the office, and Su Cheng also restrained his spirit and went back to hold a conference call. His partners probably had similar concerns.

The next morning.

Newspapers all over the world have put the shock of crude oil futures on the front page of the financial industry. Compared with yesterday afternoon's evening news, after a night of brewing of newspaper news, the depth has been significantly improved. The Financial Times has published a special report and put it on the front page.

It took Su Cheng a time for breakfast to nib down the report signed "Dilia". With his English level, the dialogue and negotiation are still working, and it is too hard to read professional articles.

Walking out of the hotel with the newspaper, he saw a group of reporters staring at him with bright eyes, as if they were a group of gamblers who stayed up all night.

A stunned, these sharp fourth-class creatures stuffed the microphone into his mouth.

"Sousin, what is the Pan-Asia Fund going to do next?"

"Su Dong, do you think today's crude oil futures will open higher?"

"Chairman Su Cheng, please say a few words to the readers of the Daily Telegraph..."

"Su Dong, the crude oil price in New York has begun to rebound. Do you regret shorting London crude oil futures..."

Su Cheng caught the information in a pile of questions, stopped and asked, "Has the price of crude oil in New York risen?"

During the London closure, crude oil futures in New York are still trading, and they have obviously digested the negative impact of OPEC.

The reporter who just mentioned the rebound of crude oil prices in New York squeezed away the people around him with a bright face and held the microphone and said, "Yes, the current price in New York is 16.22 US dollars, which is more than the price of crude oil in London. What do you think will happen next?"

"Is the price in London still fluctuating around $15?" Su Cheng did not answer the rhetorical question.

The reporter looked at the record book and said, "London North Sea Brent crude oil August contract, yesterday's closing price was $15.08. Now the price of crude oil in New York and London is seriously upside down. What do you think?

The price of North Sea Brent's crude oil futures contract has always been higher than that of Texas medium crude oil, but now the latter is $1 higher than the former, which is naturally extremely abnormal.

But compared with the upside-down price of crude oil futures, Su Cheng seems to be more abnormal. He smiled strange and uncontrollable and asked, "So, the price difference between London and New York has been raised to $1?"

"Yes." The reporter answered strangely, holding the microphone vigorously, waiting for Su Cheng's response.

Su Cheng smashed his mouth with his eyes closed.

Dahua Industrial invested $200 million in spread contracts between London and New York. At that time, the difference between the two was less than 50 cents. With a leverage of 300 to 500 times, for every 10 cents widening of the price difference between the two, Dahua Industry will make a profit of almost $450 million.

Now, the spread between London and New York has expanded to $1. For this alone, he can get a net profit of $2.3 billion from the spread contract.

This is the profit of Sucheng's independent investment, and there is no need to share a penny.

As far as the current situation is concerned, it seems that the price difference between London and New York will continue to expand.

In 1994, such a large amount of money was more than enough to buy two central enterprises to invest in other emerging industries, and I don't know how much to make.

Su Cheng laughed and waved his hand. With the help of the bodyguard, he got rid of the reporters. After sitting in the Rolls-Royce, it seemed that there was still laughter.

A group of reporters looked at it in astonishment, and some people asked softly, "What is the meaning of this expression in China?"

On the contrary, Diliya, who had interviewed Su Cheng, felt something and quietly returned to the newspaper.

......RS