Chapter 200 On Oil Prices

In the internal small conference hall of the Sports Reform Commission, only 20 people sat in a circle and talked in a low voice. Ding Zhipeng also turned his head and whispered to exchange views with others.

The Physical Reform Commission, which was born with the reform of the system, is the most powerful institution in the country at this time. Their research and investigation reports will not only improve the direction of national reform, but also determine the fate of many ministries and commissions. For example, the reform direction of "transforming government functions" has caused the Ministry of Petroleum, the Ministry of Nuclear Industry, the Ministry of Electronics and the Ministry of Coal to disappear from the sequence of national ministries, but the Ministry of Railways, the Ministry of Textile Industry has been retained, and the Ministry of Water Resources and the Ministry of Materials has been newly established...

More than 20 people present have proud capital. All of them are department-level cadres who experienced the institutional reform of the State Council in 1988. Ding Zhipeng was also in the ranks of this year and was directly promoted last year.

Organizing this report is also a new measure for Ding Zhipeng. While waiting, he whispered to his colleagues about Sucheng and Dahua Industry. It should be said that while helping and influencing Dahua Industry, he was also helped and influenced by Dahua Industry. Therefore, when he saw the new 7,500-ton offshore drilling platform built by Dahua Industry, he had a new understanding of the future direction.

Other people don't have similar experiences, so they only talk about what has happened recently and wait for the pastime.

As soon as the clock clock above the conference room crossed ten o'clock, Su Cheng pushed the door in.

Ding Zhipeng immediately stopped the discussion, turned around with a smile and said, "Su Dong, you came on time. Come to my side. We are a round table."

Su Cheng saw that everyone really moved the chair and sat in a circle, so he was polite and sat next to Ding Zhipeng and said with a smile, "I came at 9 o'clock. The doorman read the time indicated on the introduction letter and was not allowed to enter until 9:50."

Ding Zhipeng laughed and said, "This shows that the elites in our small conference room are the treasures of the country and are well protected."

"I have been famous for the elite of the Sports Reform Commission for a long time." Su Cheng said politely.

"You are not in our small conference room now." Ding Zhipeng laughed.

Su Chengran said, "I'm here to make a report."

He opened the folder as he said. Making a report in front of the think tank of the Sports Reform Commission is a challenge in itself. It's a bit like the final result of the report in the U.S. Senate may have a huge impact, which is a rare opportunity, both individually and collectively.

Ding Zhipeng nodded slightly and said, "Okay, let's listen to the development outline of Dahua Industry."

Su Cheng eased the tension with orderly movements, smiled and said, "Today, what I mainly want to say is actually the construction and development of the world's marine equipment..."

He looked around for a week and said in a hurry: "The worldwide industrial transfer has been determined. The first transfer is shipbuilding. [Sun] Ben, South Korea and Singapore have all benefited from this. Although the country is one step behind, we are on the front line of the transfer of world marine equipment. If we can Seizing this opportunity, we can stand on the front line of the world's industrial transfer, without waiting for Japan, South Korea and Singapore to transfer the industry to us after 10 years and 20 years..."

Only industrialized and strategic content can attract members of the Sports Reform Commission. Su Cheng only said two paragraphs, which attracted everyone's attention. At the beginning, some wandering eyes turned around.

Su Cheng was very well prepared. After a glance at the manuscript, he continued: "The marine equipment industry, whether in the past, now, or in the future, is a hot industry, and it will become more and more popular... Why?"

He smiled, his voice slowed down, and said, "Because of the oil fever at sea. As I said earlier, the rise in oil prices is a very clear thing. For oil development at sea, it is necessary to have good equipment, which is completely different from the situation on land. On land, people's environment is not particularly passive. There are always some relatively simple equipment to achieve relatively complex tasks. In fact, it is becoming more and more difficult..."

"However, at sea, in the deep sea, without very good equipment, nothing can be achieved at all." Su Cheng paused for a moment and continued, "People in the sea are like ants in the desert. You can't make too much preparation. Therefore, they can only continue to invest and improve. For oil companies, as long as the price of offshore oil does not exceed the oil price, they have enough impulse to carry out high-risk, high-input and high-return industries. Why? Because oil prices will continue to rise..."

"I noticed that Su Dong seems to be a staunch supporter of the rise in oil prices? Can you talk about it?" The official on the right held a notebook and listened very carefully.

Due to the small number of people, such a report will be allowed to be interrupted. Looking at everyone's eager expression, Su Cheng nodded with a smile and said, "It seems that you want to hear the oil price report more."

"If the price of oil really rises, there is no doubt about the value of marine equipment." Ding Zhipeng answered Su Cheng's question.

Su Cheng nodded gently. He still underestimates the level of these guys. For them, there is no problem with the value of rising oil prices and launching marine construction. The only thing that cannot be analyzed is the oil price.

In fact, except for travelers like him, there were few people who firmly believed that oil prices would rise in the 1990s. On the one hand, it is the cause of history, and on the other hand, there are too many analyses of oil prices. There are so many determinants, but the weight is indistinguishable, and the market is unpredictable. Many people have even derived the idea of conspiracy theories.

In fact, the general trend such as oil prices should be the background of the conspiracy, not the direct result of the conspiracy. Just like the story of the Napoleonic Wars and Rothschild, Rothschild can take advantage of the results of the Napoleonic Wars, but if he directly determines the direction of the war, the cost will be too great, which is contrary to the low-cost, high-risk and high-output attributes of the conspiracy.

After a moment of meditation, Su Cheng closed the report and said with a smile, "Let's talk about oil prices. In fact, oil is a commodity after all, and its rise and fall is ultimately determined by supply. Any other factor can only determine the short term, not the long term. If no influence is exerted, as far as the current development of the oil industry is concerned, it will take us about 50 years, or even more than 50 years to use land oil. But Arab countries will not let us finish digging land oil.

Everyone laughed.

Su Cheng also smiled and said, "Therefore, what can determine the price of oil is two points in the end. In terms of demand, it is the development of the world economy, and in terms of supply, it accounts for about two-thirds of the world's reserves and more than 40% of sales. The world economy must be developing, but what about the supply of OPEC? How they price is actually a knowledge. First of all, we can't reduce production too much, otherwise the world economy will be damaged and they will have a hard time. At the same time, if they cut production too much, everyone will use alternative energy sources. The more prices rise, the more alternative energy sources will eventually lead to a reduction in demand and the risk of unnecessary price fluctuations. Therefore, in my opinion, the How does OPEC control this degree?

Everyone held their breath and stared, and the only sound in the field was the rustle of the pen. It's like the class given to the [answer] case in the exam.

Sucheng is indeed giving them the [answer] case, the direct [answer] case. He paused for a few seconds and continued: "For OPEC, I think one of their policies will perfectly solve the problem of oil pricing. I'm not sure if they say it now, but I think they always say it.

Su Cheng did not prepare information about oil prices in advance, so he briefly explained and said, "This pricing method is actually detailed in Marx's works, about land rent."

Once he talked about Marx, everyone became interested. Nothing else, any action of the Sports Reform Commission should be found in Marx's original work.

"Land and oil are very similar in scarcity." Su Cheng did not say anything more about Marx. He turned around and said, "I think the most important part of OPEC's pricing theory is that they point out that the price of oil is not determined by oil itself, but by alternative energy. Think about it, with the current price of alternative energy, is the trend of oil prices increasing or rising?

"According to your theory, the price of offshore oil is actually a substitute for land oil?" Someone asked quickly.

"That's right." Su Cheng nodded affirmatively and said, "With this method, OPEC can not only raise the price of oil, but also kill all alternative energy sources. Due to the large demand for oil, oil will be wrapped in alternative energy sources, rising all the way until the arrival of technology to completely replace petroleum fuels. Therefore, the upward trend of oil prices will continue for 20 years, for 30 years..."

"It won't go down?"

"Short-term decline, maybe, long-term decline, impossible." Su Cheng said in an instant, "Light sea oil, deep sea oil, polar oil, ... everyone, this is a kind of competition. In the past, we could not exploit our own oil and save it for future generations. In the future, when everyone began to extract oil on the high seas and in the Arctic and Antarctic, if we don't participate, we can only watch the rise of new colonies..."

Everyone is hot-blooded for 30 or 40 years old. Once the heated discussion begins, there is no intention to stop.

Qi Meng sat opposite Su Cheng, listening to Su Cheng's words while looking at his expression. As a young cadre from the grassroots level, his experience is quite rich, so he has more mastery of human nature and tends to consider human factors.

When he saw Su Cheng and listened to Su Cheng's analysis of oil and marine engineering, his brain naturally made an analysis - this guy is a fighter with a strong spirit.

Such a fighter, no matter what level he is at, will fight hard, constantly defeat the people around him, and keep rising. No wonder he gave up his rich ministry life and chose the oil industry. No wonder he can get in and out of the oil barrels of the world's oil giants.

Qi Meng couldn't help thinking that if Su Cheng was not born in an era of drastic change, but in a stable era, his fighting spirit might make his life fail unnecessarily. Peking University is also a very good starting point. Unfortunately, his background is average. Otherwise, he can also play a big role in entering the Sports Reform Commission.

His brain is also thinking at the same time. When everyone was satisfied with his speech, he took the initiative to ask, "Su Cheng, listen to you, do you want to convince us to increase the investment in offshore oil equipment?"

"You can't just pay, you have to have someone and policies."

Ding Zhipeng smiled and said, "Let's go to the following research. Generally speaking, we have policies, people, and money. You can give us the other way around today."

A bunch of people around laughed.

Ding Zhipeng clapped his hands and said, "I heard that the newly formed COSCO Group seems to have carried out a national technical research. What's wrong? Isn't it enough?"

"COSCO Group can be said to have solved the problem of 70% of people, and we still want a policy."

"What policy?"

"We, Dahua Industry, want to merge a large state-owned enterprise." In the future, despite various reforms such as the reform of the joint-stock system, [China] has always adhered to the principle of focusing on the big and letting go of the small, and many large enterprises do not allow private capital to enter at all. In addition, joint-stock transformation and complete acquisition are also two different things. In fact, it is more like a capital owner, giving part of the shares to the operator, such as equity incentives.

The small conference room fell into a brief silence.

It was Qi Meng who broke the silence and said, "Which company do you want to merge with?"

"Tianjin Petroleum Machinery General Factory. I heard that they are already in business difficulties. What Su Cheng said was exactly the Jinshi General Factory where Du Lijun was located. They are one of the most state-owned petroleum equipment enterprises, and many of the equipment produced can be used at sea. Excessive expansion and great happiness are Du Lijun's personality defects, especially in state-owned enterprises. They can't be big or small, and they can't go up or down, which makes the blood loss of the expanding Jinshi General Factory seriously. Although it has not reached the level of bankruptcy, the good days in the past have long gone forever.

The current Jinshi General Factory has to borrow money from the bank every year. At first, the year-end loan was issued at the end of the year, and now the loan is paid in the off-season. Anyone familiar with state-owned enterprises knows that such a factory has reached the verge of collapse.

After hearing it and thinking about it, Ding Zhipeng said, "The level of Jinshi General Factory is very high. We can't answer it. We will report it to the above."

"I'm not in a hurry. Take your time." Su Cheng smiled and said, "I merged the Jinshi General Factory in order to develop the third generation of offshore drilling platforms. All I can say is that if you give me the Jinshi General Factory, I can get my own third-generation, fourth-generation offshore drilling platform. At that time, we will mine the oil in the South China Sea by ourselves, without looking at the eyes of foreigners!"

"You have to be psychologically prepared. Even if the superior agrees, the Jinshi General Factory is not cheap, and the shareholding ratio is difficult to say."

"The state can keep 10% or 20%, and I will pay double taxes. No matter how much it is, I don't want it. I'll make one for myself. Su Cheng said half jokingly.

"I wrote it down." Although Ding Zhipeng thinks it's fresh, he thinks it's fresh and good. They themselves are engaged in system reform, what kind of factories can be merged, what kind of factories can't be used as swords, local cadres have concerns, but they are just an experiment.