Chapter 575 Open High and Go High

Although Zhang Chao did not see the company's tender, he also had his own understanding of the bidding price of the oil field. At least, the bidding division of 60 is a threshold.

1994 was not the era of $100 a barrel of oil. If inflation is taken into account, oil prices in the 1990s were cheaper than those in the 1970s after the oil crisis. It is under such oil and dollar prices that the Clinton administration has created a long-term economic prosperity. Coupled with Lewinsky and his trouser belt problem, this should be the halightest era for Americans. Of course, it is also a relatively wonderful era for oil prices. The next time we encounter this situation, it depends on the shale gas and economic landscape. Whether the gas index is compatible or not.

If it is the oil price of $100, the oil company can laugh out laughing at the profit of 40, not to mention the profit of 15, because the cost is so much, and the price rises so fast, so that the 100 dollars per barrel of oil in many places can get a profit of $80 or even 90. Run, the 15-sharing agreement obtained in this way means an income of $12 or even $14.

However, even if current oil companies expect oil prices to rise, they have to face current oil prices and current shareholder expectations. In the range of $20 to $30, after deducting the profit of $10 to $20 and then taking out the profit of 65, the revenue of many oil wells may be less than $6, which will be much less than the profit of the next 15.

Considering the large development costs in the early stage and the risks incurred accordingly, it earns $5 or $6 per barrel of oil, which is almost the same as signing service agreements for many companies. After all, the service agreement is a fixed revenue per barrel. In the first 10 years of the 21st century, most oil companies can still get a service agreement of about $5 per barrel. In this way, although there is no joy of excess oil ejection, it is better than stable profits.

Of course, the situation in Azerbaijan also has its own characteristics. On the one hand, the cost of oil development here is higher. Onshore oil basically has to drill more than 3,000 meters, and offshore oil is no longer a shallow sea of less than 20 meters, but hundreds of meters deep continental shelf oil. Therefore, the cost of oil exploitation will be closer to $20, so that the profit will be small in the first few years of oil production. Thin. On the other hand, Azerbaijan has granted concessions for a very long time, whether it is 30 or 35 years, which means that this is a constantly increasing asset.

However, the value of the future determines the limit that can be paid now. In Zhang Chao's opinion, 60 is already a very high amount, and it is somewhat beyond his expectation to be crossed so simply by BP.

What makes him more suspicious is what kind of bidding share Sucheng will set for Dahua Industry? Judging from the tenders for the four oil fields announced so far, 60 is obviously less, but is it worth paying more?

Zhang Chao's brain hurts when thinking about this question.

He quickly decided to give up this meaningless melancholy, coughed and began to write on his notes.

The celebrations of BP, Total, and more than a dozen other companies also ended quickly, slowly quieting the conference hall.

Unlike the four companies formed by Dahua Industry, BP will choose different companies to form a company group when bidding for different oil blocks. Naturally, this method is more time-consuming and energy-consuming than a fixed group of companies, but if you make the right choice according to local conditions, the probability of successful bidding will also increase.

At least one thing, a fixed company group like Dahua Industry will not get 3 oil fields in a row like BP.

Whether from economic or political considerations, Aliyev will not do so.

After another half an hour, free breakfast was provided in the conference hall, two slices of Western bread, two slices of ham or bacon, and a cup of coffee.

There are not many things, but they are all hot.

Su Cheng swallowed all the food on the plate in just two minutes with a mouthful of bread ham and a mouthful of coffee.

Zhang Chao couldn't help laughing and said, "Su Dong has a good appetite."

"There is no supper, and it's not good to have a good breakfast. I'm afraid it won't last until noon." Su Cheng held the coffee and warmed his hands, showing his drowsiness after eating.

Zhang Chao looked at his expression and said curiously, "It's almost time for the No. 6 oil block. Are you really not worried?"

Su Cheng stared at him and said, "How can you not worry? I'm not trying to stabilize morale."

"Ah?" Zhang Chao never dreamed that this was the answer.

Qin Yun, who was next to

, also put down the bread in his hand in astonishment: "Su Dong!"

Xiaopang was very smart and said, "I know, just like Xie An in the Eastern Jin Dynasty. He was very excited and pretended to be calm. He broke all the cuffs with the last kick."

"It's the teeth of cuffs." Qin Yun corrected.

Xiao Pang patted his forehead and said, "So... is that how the toothlessness came from?"

Su Cheng coughed violently and slapped Xiao Pang on the forehead again and said, "I don't think you want teeth anymore."

"It hurts..." Xiao Pang covered his red place and said with nostalgia, "Oh... Master, you haven't hit me for a long time."

"Bang!"

This time it was Qin Yun's beating. At the same time, she twisted Xiaopang's ear and said, "You have no backbone, don't you feel comfortable without being beaten--"

"Of course not, I mean... Look, the microphone is back." Xiao Pang used little Aliyev to divert his attention.

Qin Yun and others really turned their eyes to the front.

Little Aliyev was expressionless and said, "The final result of the No. 5 oil field has appeared. After the judgment of His Excellency the President, the company that finally won the bid was Chevron. The basic share is increased by 14.1, the contract fee is increased by $45 million, the time of concession exploration is 3 years, and the effective time of the concession is 35 years..."

He is too big to open his mouth and can't close. 14.1 The increase in the base share means that after obtaining more than 10 million barrels of oil fields, the profit of 64.1 will be handed over to the oil-producing countries.

Of course, this number cannot be said to be an unprecedented number, but this is almost the dividing limit that Zhang Chao thinks.

If this limit is exceeded, the profits of oil companies will be greatly reduced. According to the analysis of the evaluation groups, they believe that such high-value sharing indicators will appear in the two best-performing oil fields, No. 8 and No. 11.

No. 5 oil block, it does not give the company much information, so the company takes much more risks. If you really only get a 10 million barrel oil field, plus a signed amount of 65 million, Chevron will have to fall into a huge loss.

" Chevron is crazy." Zhang Chao did not hesitate to give an evaluation.

Qin Yun quickly calculated and said, "They must give the No. 5 oil block a high valuation. This is a offshore oil field, right? What is the activation index?

"$4,500." Zhang Chao replied.

The activation index is used as a parameter for the amount of investment required for a bright new oil well, which is usually expressed in the number of dollars per barrel per day under stable output.

The activation index of $4,500 means that an oil well with a daily output of 100 barrels will be drilled, at a cost of $450,000.

The oil area with an annual output of 10 million barrels means that the daily output is more than 30,000 barrels. Based on Azerbaijan's activation index, at least $130 million is needed.

Plus a signing fee of 65 million, it means that Chevron is ready to invest nearly $200 million before seeing the turbulent oil tide. This has not calculated the cost of their promise to Aliyev.

In fact, if the production is only 10 million barrels, it is not easy for Chevron to see a profit in ten years.

Qin Yun made a judgment and said, "At least 25 million barrels. They must have judged that the No. 5 oil block has a production capacity of more than 25 million barrels.

The production capacity of 25 million barrels means that the development cost is more than 325 million, and the total cost on the surface is more than 400 million US dollars.

Zhang Chao couldn't help shaking his head and said, "There is no need to come up with such a high basic share ratio. The increase of 11 is more than enough. Who will open such a high price and compete with them?"

As soon as he finished his words, the members of the Shell bidding group raised their hands and shouted, "We have opinions."

"What?" Little Aliyev, who was about to sit down, seemed not surprised.

Shell's representative picked up the outline that several people had just discussed and said, "In the tender we submitted to your country, the basic share increase we are willing to undertake is 14.2, and the signing fee increase is 40 million US dollars. We ask for reconsideration."

"I know." Little Aliyev nodded, pulled out a piece of paper from the bottom, and read: "Because the added value of the basic share of the two sides is similar, and the added value of the Chevron bidding group is more, in the early stage of the construction of Azerbaijan, we think this amount is more beneficial to the country. In addition, the Chevron bidding group has a clear time allocation for oilfield construction and plans for the construction of supporting refineries. Therefore, we finally believe that it is more beneficial to Azerbaijan's interests to hand over the No. 5 oil block to Chevron for development..."

The bidding value of both sides is close, and the power belongs to the Azerbaijani government. Shell's representatives also expected this point. He argued for a few words, and finally stopped, and in the eyes of other companies, it only proved that the public relations behind Shell was not good enough.

Zhang Chao was stunned and muttered to himself, "Shell actually sold 14.2... Can this still make money?"

"There are so many companies, many people are thinking about getting oil lumps first." Qin Yun took a look at Su Cheng and asked sincerely, "Can we do it?"

"Look." Su Cheng also sighed a little. If he hadn't made so much preparation, I'm afraid he would have plunged into this bottomless hole.

In order to avoid too much discussion of the appropriate "government judgment" among companies, little Aliyev quickly took out the results of the No. 6 oil field and said, "I now announce the company that has obtained the No. 6 oil block..."

With a bang, at least hundreds of people sat up straight in front of them.

......RS