Chapter 12 cross the Rubicon
After the meeting with the Austrian ambassador, Shazonov immediately discussed with General Irushkwiki, the Chief of Staff, and suggested that the Russian army should be mobilized specifically targeted at the Austro-Hungarian part. Such an announcement could warn Germany and be an effective threat to prevent Austria-Hungary from attacking Serbia.
At 11 a.m., the Chief of the General Staff called the Director of the General Staff Mobilization Group and asked:
"Are you ready to announce the mobilization of our army?"
When the mobilization director replied in the affirmative, the Chief of Staff said, "Within an hour, bring me all the documents about preparing our army to fight; if necessary, announce some mobilization against Austria-Hungary. And it is required to ensure that Germany will not be given any excuse to take hostile measures after mobilization.
In fact, it is impossible for Russia to announce partial mobilization in a short time. Because Russia has long believed that Germany will be involved in a war between Austria and Russia, Russia has not drawn up a mobilization plan for the war against Austria.
At the same time, some mobilization is not conducive to the development of the situation. Because if there is no strong strength as a backing, doing so will only cause contempt from the other party.
Partial mobilization can only mobilize four military regions: Kiev, Odessa, Moscow and Kazan. After mobilization, the troops of these four military regions must be deployed to the border. However, in order to effectively strike Austria from the east and the north, part of the army must pass through the Warsaw Military Region, which is bound to alarm Germany.
In addition, with partial mobilization, there will be extreme chaos. Because part of the reserve army of the Warsaw Military Region must be transferred from Moscow and the Kazan Military Region, which have been partially mobilized. However, where did Shazonov and Irushikki, who had just been in office as Chief of Staff for several months, understand these dangers and difficulties?
After talking with Chabali and making arrangements with Irushkwiki, he rushed to the French Embassy and had lunch with French Ambassador Ballilog and British Ambassador Bugarnan. Diamandi, the minister of Romania, was also invited to participate. At this time, what he wants to know more is their attitude.
Shazonov said to the guests at the banquet.
"The actions taken by Austria-Hungary mean war. I hope Britain can announce its alliance with France and Russia."
Then he said again.
"Austria-Hung's action is a provocation to us, and many of the conditions it proposes are absolutely unacceptable; if it has not negotiated with Germany, it will never do so."
Then he told Bugan, "During French President Puengacha's visit to Russia, there was a complete consensus between France and Russia. France not only gave strong diplomatic support to Russia, but also fulfilled all the obligations stipulated by the alliance when necessary."
And Bugan replied.
"Sir, please forgive me. I can't speak on behalf of the UK now, but I can telegram everything we say to the Prime Minister."
He said this because he knew that if he made a statement of unity on behalf of Britain, it would mean supporting Russia and France by force, which was hopeless. Because Britain has no direct interest in Serbia, British public opinion will never go to war for Serbia.
Noticing Bugan's hesitation, Shazonov explained.
"The Serbian issue is only part of the whole European issue. Britain should not bury itself. In this incident, in order to express Russia's voice and attract the attention of Austria-Hungary, Russia is bound to mobilize, but it will not be decided until a cabinet meeting is held.
And to Shazonov's answer, Bugan made a euphemistic suggestion.
"You can put pressure on Austria to extend the deadline through the diplomatic actions of various countries."
But at this time, the French ambassador Ballerogg replied, "Time does not allow this. Austria is either threatening or determined to take immediate action. In either case, the only way to eliminate the war is to adopt a strong and united attitude.
For Balilogue, his point of view is very clear that Russia is an ally with France, and what is more important for France is that Germany also occupies Lorraine and Alsace in France. The national shame of 1871 needs to be washed away and the lost land needs to be recovered, although there are more local Germans, although it is France. It was captured from the Holy Roman Empire hundreds of years ago, but it was French.
In the following banquet, Shazonov and Balli Rog kept urging Bugan to make a statement of complete unity in Britain, and Bugan promised to telegram to Sir Grey to make a detailed report. He even expressed his personal opinion that Gray might strongly propose to Vienna and Berlin that Austria-Hungary's attack on Serbia would endanger peace in Europe... And if the war spreads to countries, it would be difficult for Britain to remain neutral.
In the face of such an answer, Shazonov said with dissatisfaction.
"If the war really breaks out, Britain will be involved sooner or later. If it does not fight with France and Russia now, it will increase the possible surname of war, so it will play an unbeautiful role.
Shazonov's answer and Ballirog's insistence made Bugan conclude in his heart that even if Britain did not want to join the Russia-France alliance, France and Russia seemed to be determined to take a tough position, but as a diplomat, he did not have the right to answer for Britain, and he did not get instructions from London.
Shazonov was frustrated by the failure to win the union of Britain, France and Russia. He couldn't even go to the German ambassador because he couldn't affirm Russia's policy, and he decided to discuss it with the ministers first.
So at 3 p.m., he left the lunch meeting of the French Embassy and continued the cabinet meeting.
At the meeting, he explained the current diplomatic situation and put forward many reasons to persuade the military authorities to accept part of his mobilization plan. The final meeting adopted the following resolutions:
(1) Contact with other powers to ask the Austrian Yan's time limit, so as to have enough time to study in detail the "compile of documents" that Austria claims to be provided about the Sarajevo incident; (2) If Austria invades Serbian territory, advise Serbia not to resist by force and The fate is entrusted to the great powers to make a decision; (3) Authorize the Minister of Defense and the Minister of the Navy to submit to the Tsar's approval. Depending on the development of the situation, it is appropriate to mobilize the four military regions of Kiev, Odessa, Moscow and Kazan, as well as the Baltic and Black Sea fleets; (4) Immediately replenish the combat readiness materials; (5) Immediately recover those stored in Germany and Austria-Hungary. Deposits.
After arranging all this, Shazonov received German Ambassador Podares at 19:00 p.m. to listen to Germany's opinions on the ultimatum and the "localization" policy of the event.
When Podalaes defended Austria's actions in accordance with the instructions he received and advocated that the dispute in Osset should be "localized", that is, settled by the two countries.
Podarez's request made Shazonov very nervous, so he said with a very strong attitude.
"It is impossible for Russia to agree that the Osset dispute will be settled by the two countries themselves."
At the same time, he argued in an extremely sharp tone.
"The promise of Serbia mentioned by Austria-Hungary in the ultimatum is not made to Austria-Hungary alone, but to the great powers. Therefore, the question of whether Serbia fulfills its promise is not a "localization" issue, but a "European issue" and a "international issue". Assassination cases should be tried by Europe, and Austria-Hungary cannot be both a plaintiff and a judge.
Podares replied tit-for-tat.
"It is impractical for this issue to be judged by the six countries. Because Austria-Hungary's political friends stand on one side and its enemies stand on the other, what's the point of such a judicial process?
Then he said again.
"Germany will not allow its neighbors to accept the ruling of the European Supreme Court of its adversary states. Monarchs should unite."
On July 25, Russia held an important cabinet meeting, which was attended by the Tsar. At the meeting, there was a fierce debate between the two factions that advocated and did not advocate "partial mobilization", but in the end, a faction represented by Foreign Minister Shazonov won, and the Tsar agreed to declare "partial mobilization".
"The mobilization order has been issued!"
After receiving the report from the servant, Shazonov, who tried his best to promote part of the mobilization, did not have a trace of joy on his face, but some were just a little sad. He got up and walked to the map and looked at the map hanging on the wall. His eyes first fell on Austria-Hungary and Serbia, then moved to Germany, and then Russia. Finally, his eyes fell to the east. When he was staring at the east, he frowned.
"China, what kind of statement will China make?"
At present, Shazonov made a decision in his heart that he should have a real meeting with the Chinese ambassador to Russia without any concealment.
I hope China... At 3:26 a.m. on July 26, General Irushkwiki, the Chief of Russian Staff, issued a mobilization order.
"Partial mobilization is carried out in all parts of Russia's European territory."
In the era of belief that "mobilization means war", Russia unilaterally announced partial mobilization, which undoubtedly further escalated the crisis.
At the first time the mobilization order was issued, an oriental man in a suit came to the Telegraph Bureau of St. Petersburg Railway Station. He took a telegraph from the telegraphman. The telegraph was sent to a trading company in Nanjing, the capital of the Chinese Empire, and the content of the telegram was also very simple, with only one sentence.
"crosstheRubicon!"
When the middle-aged telegrapher saw the content of the telegram, he couldn't help but be stunned. Maybe it was difficult for Russians to understand this sentence, but he was an Englishman and knew this sentence very well.
In 49 BC, Caesar crossed the Rubicon River. The war began, and history began to change. In English, "crosstheRubicon" was often used as a military order-like existence. After crossing the Rubicon River, there was no The road can be retreated.
Despite his curiosity, he didn't see anything strange, so he sent such a telegram. As a telegrapher, he did not know what such a telegram would cause in the East. He may have sent too many telegrams in his career, but in his memory, he remembered such a simple and somewhat special telegram.
"crosstheRubicon!"
(to be continued)