Chapter 124 Intelligence Analysis

Chen Moran carefully pushed away the file from his eyes, slowly stood up from the table and paced in the office. He stood in front of the window and stared at the pigeons in the front of the palace square. At this time, the pigeons gathered in the front of the palace square for food without panic. The new mayor of Nanjing was an official who had studied in Britain. Perhaps his nostalgia for London street pigeons led him to introduce street pigeons in Nanjing.

After turning around, Chen Moran looked at the person in charge of intelligence, smoked a few cigarettes in a row, smoked the remaining half of the cigars, and then set it to the table. He nodded his head on the file and asked:

"Well, is there any other information besides the information in the report?"

"Your Majesty, after the Rasputing incident, the social mood of disappointment with the war and the political axe is even stronger, and the current situation is becoming more and more out of control..."

"Who provided you with these messages? Are these sources reliable?"

"It is completely reliable, and most of the intelligence analysis is the conclusions made by the intelligence personnel stationed in Russia."

During the report, Zhang Jing lowered his head slightly. In front of His Majesty, he maintained 100% respect and tame from the heart as in the past.

"Hmm..."

In response, Chen Moran did not continue to speak. Then he stood at the table, pulled the report in front of him, and browsed it again:

"The Grand Duke of Pavlović immediately left Petrograd for Persia and listened to General Baratov, the commander of Post's troops; Grand Duke Yusupov immediately left Petrograd and was exiled to the Plantagenet Manor in Kursk Province. At midnight, the exiles left Petrograd by car. On the same day, all newspapers that reported the murder of Rasputin were also ordered to suspend publication. A few days later, Golizen was appointed as the prime minister of the cabinet, which was strongly recommended by Rasputin during his lifetime.

In this regard, all walks of life in Russia were extremely disappointed. A high-ranking official personally talked to our diplomats:

"Life in Russia has been terrible for a long time, and now it has become more and more unbearable, because it is no longer a bad management, but a fool to the people. It was Rasputin who held Russia. Although he was killed, the situation not only did not improve, but also got worse. ...The Golitsen Group has simply led Russia to a dead end... As a friend, I don't think that the Russian Empire still has any hope of being rescued"

The famous Russian poet Burlock wrote in the newspaper:

"As a result, the bullet of Rasputin's surname is falling in the heart of ruling the imperial dynasty."

After Rasputin was stabbed, the Tsar was very melancholy. He lived a simple, vague and hesitant when things happened. According to the aristocrats and high-level people who enter and leave the court:

"Nicholas II has actually given way internally."

At present, the Tsar himself lives in his fatalism. At this time, only he and a few people still firmly believe that the Tsar is the God of Russia. The people's loyalty to the king is based on religious sentiments, and revolution will not happen. In mid-January, Mitrotsky, a royalist and Duma MP, asserted in the name of "Russian Orthodox people in Kiev" in his report to Nikolay: "Although the left-wing newspapers have strengthened the propaganda of revolutionary ideas... most of the working people are still very conservative and loyal to the [***] system." Nicholas II said in the report: "This report is worth paying attention to." ...Queen Alexandra quickly recovered from the melancholy state of losing "holy" and worrying about her son Alexei's health. She had to do her best to help her husband maintain the [***] rule of the Romanov dynasty.

The Tsar and the Empress became more like glue after the death of Rasputin. In order to comfort the queen and stabilize the court, the Tsar decided to stay in the imperial village temporarily and not return to the base camp.

After the Rasputin incident, the social sentiment of disappointment in the war and the political axe has become stronger, and the current situation in Russia has become more and more uncontrollable.

In the upper class, people are already brewing a palace coup. In January 1917, General Klimuf returned to the capital from the front line and said to the MP for the Duma, "If you decide to take this extreme approach (removing the tsar), we will support you." Shitlovski, a member of the October Party, shouted angrily, "When he is destroying Russia, there is no need to pity and appease him." In the heated debate, Brosilov said, "If we have to choose between the Tsar and Russia - then I will follow Russia." Sheng Garov, a member of the Constitutional Party, commented on this:

"The general's words are right: a coup cannot be avoided. ...But who decided to do it?"

Looking at the situation in Russia mentioned in these reports, Chen was silent and walked in the office for a long time. Then he stood in front of the person in charge of intelligence and looked at Zhang Jing's extremely obedient face. For Zhang Jing, Chen Moran's inner evaluation can be said to have gone to two extremes, but for him, Chen Silently, he will never use "loyalty" to describe it, or in the prevention of the intelligence leader, it is difficult for him to believe that if he comes into contact with too many dark intelligence leaders, he will be 100% loyal.

After a long silence, Chen Moran asked again:

"Now tell me, in what direction the current situation in Russia will go,"

This... In the face of Your Majesty's problem, Zhang Jing thought for a moment. Although he repeatedly stressed in the report of the intelligence bureau analysts that the Russian Empire had all the factors of the revolution, the contact had been announced that the crown prince and Princess Nasha were about to be engaged. He hesitated for a moment, and then Say it.

"According to the analysis of the situation in Russia by intelligence analysts, we believe that there are extremely strong unstable factors in the Russian Empire, which are likely to lead to a revolution in the Russian Empire!"

After quoting this conclusion, Zhang Jing added.

"There may be a second possibility, Your Majesty."

In the reports of hundreds of Russian intelligence analysts of the Imperial Intelligence Agency, they combined intelligence analysis and analyzed various possibilities through legend comparison. In the past few years, through professional training, the Imperial Intelligence Agency has already established an excellent intelligence analysis department.

"Oh? Is there a second possibility?"

Chen Muran has always believed that the Chinese butterfly has not changed the fate of the Russian Empire, at least not their current fate.

"Based on the information available so far, the analysts believe that there are two forces in Russia at present: one is revolutionaries who tend to a republic - many of them, including many noble and senior officials - openly support the abolition of the tsarist system, and it is divided into radicals and moderates. Even between these two factions, there are internal differences. At the same time, the upper class of Russia is dominated by nobles and senior officials. They are more inclined to replace the tsar to end internal problems. Compared with the crown prince, they are more inclined to Grand Duke Mikhail..."

The following words, Zhang Jing is not willing to go on, because there is another variable, that is, the wife of Grand Duke Mikhail and Grand Duke Mikhail have only one daughter. Now his daughter is about to be engaged to the Chinese crown prince, which will directly lead to a series of Change.

However, in the eyes of intelligence analysts, this may lead to a series of variables, but there may be another variable. Of course, the possibility of that variable is only 2.13%. It can be said that the surname may be negligible and not worth mentioning at all.

"Oh? It seems that the Intelligence Agency has really put a lot of effort into this matter.

Chen Moran nodded deeply about the analysis of the Intelligence Agency. The conclusion they gave was exactly what happened in history. However, they ignored a variable, that is, the Bolsheviks, the revolutionary radical faction in Russia, are far different from any one that the Intelligence Agency has known and contacted. Revolutionary factions, so their conclusions will deviate from their roots due to lack of understanding.

"I prefer to believe that a revolution will break out in Russia."

"Your Majesty, the possible surname of the revolution is 42.3%!"

While reminding your majesty, Zhang Jing added.

"And the coup may be 38.5%."

"It seems that the two are comparable!"

With a smile, Chen Moran clicked on the report on the table.

"It seems that in any case, Russia will definitely change its dynasty, whether it is a revolution or a coup!"

"Yes, Your Majesty, because of this, I hope that Your Majesty can reconsider the loan to Russia. We should wait until the current chaos is over before making a decision. If it is a revolution, then after the regime is stabilized, we can help the Russians. If it is to replace the Tsar, we can also make the same decision. In this regard, the most important point is how China can ensure China's interests in this storm!"

Out of the understanding of the political situation in Russia, after learning that the cabinet agreed to provide a loan of 400 million rubles to Russia for the maintenance and repair of the Siberian railway, Zhang Jing held an opposition. In his opinion, if he was not careful, the money was likely to be watered.

"What if this is more beneficial to China?"

"I don't know. At present, the chaos in the political situation is likely to make it difficult to recover the loan."

"It's a good thing to answer honestly. You have been engaged in so much intelligence work. You should know that the rise of a dynasty can certainly get the most benefits, but the collapse of a dynasty can also get beyond imagination. Is that so?"

Reason, at this time, Chen Moran will not say that the loans to Russia are only for this year's reasons to some extent. 70% of those loans are offset by materials provided by China. Even if there is a revolution, the actual losses are very limited. After all, the vast majority of materials have not been delivered, and the loans are also deposited. In the Russian branch of the Bank of China.

"Your Majesty..."

The way I wanted to speak made Chen Moran smile:

"I have my intention, but I don't need to teach your career. Do what you know within the scope of your career! As for here, I think the cabinet has the consideration of the cabinet!"

That consideration won't last long... In his meditation, Chen Moran once again looked out of the window and looked to the north. Soon, history will change...

(to be continued)