Chapter 375 Analysis of Feng's Crisis!

The weather in Yanjing is always unpredictable. The financial, political and cultural circles have always been like this. Since Feng entered the emergency lockdown in the first two months, it has been subject to many speculations from the outside world. And Feng's crisis has set off a domestic economic turmoil across the country. The world financial crisis has spread all over the world, and Huaxia has not been spared, but this impact is generally not fatal. Compared with the United States, it is simply a small thing, but Feng's crisis is different. Generally speaking, Feng's Huaxia One of the major pillars of the economy, if Feng really goes bankrupt, it will inevitably be superimposed into the crisis wave brought to China by the financial crisis, making this momentum stronger. This is not what domestic large and small enterprises are willing to see, let alone what the country wants. For a moment, there were different opinions, and various experts in the financial sector in the major media formed a multi-party faction, specializing in commenting on Feng's crisis, and the sense of crisis was deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.

"Welcome to today's special report on finance and economics. This time, our main topic is still about the impact of the Feng crisis on the domestic economy. Today, we invite experts to Mr. Xu Zhihong, a professor at Yanjing University of Finance and Economics, and Mr. Gu Yongnian, president of Yanjing University."

The two old men greeted this kind of person with a pleasant face; "Hello, host, friends at the scene are good to the audience in front of the TV."

The host said, "Professor Xu, Feng's problem has been a hot topic that has been discussed by major media and the public for nearly two months. Today, we are making this special report, just to ask you to explain to us how much impact the Feng's crisis will have on the domestic economy and people's lives, so that we can be more Be clear but not blindly panic about Feng's crisis,"

Xu Zhihong is an old man older than Gu Yongnian, with a sharp mouth and a monkey cheek, but his eyes are shining, giving people a feeling of being old and strong. He laughed; "In fact, the main reason why everyone is so worried about the Feng's crisis is that this economic crisis has affected every corner of the world, and many enterprises have fallen Closure makes everyone panic. In fact, the collapse of enterprises is that the people are too pessimistic. The financial crisis only acts as a trigger, leading to the specific cause of the rapid death of these enterprises. The Securities Times reporter found in the investigation and interview that many enterprises at the forefront of the crisis are "a wave of large-scale bankruptcy is coming" I don't think so. Because in their eyes, if the enterprise is not down-to-earth and the management is not rigorous, bankruptcy will be inevitable. The crisis only accelerates the death rate of these enterprises. So for this crisis, I want to tell everyone not to be too nervous. It's unnecessary.

The host said, "Professor Xu, in your opinion, is the main reason for Feng's crisis due to the financial crisis?"

Xu Zhihong said, "Let's not talk about whether Feng's crisis is attributed to the financial crisis. Let's take a look at the types of business failures first. The first is asphyxiation death,"

Because small and medium-sized enterprises have fewer real estate and need loans, banks have innovatively come up with movable property as collateral, which usually includes product inventory, raw materials, etc. Just like the movable property mortgage supervision business provided by a company in Zhejiang has exceeded 1 billion yuan. Originally, everything was normal, but a crisis has emerged recently. Due to the sharp decline in the price of bulk raw materials, the value of collateral has shrunk sharply, which has exceeded the bottom line of the value of movable property required by the bank for monitoring in a very short time. The time was too short for small and medium-sized enterprises to increase collateral, and the bank began to panic and wanted to recover the loan immediately to avoid losses. This is an avalanche of bankruptcy, because small and medium-sized enterprises are experiencing an unprecedented crisis, and funds are already very tight. If the bank withdraws loans immediately, the enterprise will definitely fail. This is suffocating death."

"In fact, this financial crisis is just a trigger. Judging from the current domestic situation, the sudden collapse of large enterprises has begun to ferment. The whole market is worried about this and worry about causing a chain reaction and forming a wave of collapse of large enterprises. I don't think the public need to This tension."

Because the collapse of these companies without exception is related to excessive borrowing, blind expansion and investment. They always fantasize that they can catch up with the world level in a few years, but companies like GE can't be achieved in a few years. The inevitable result of blind expansion and high debt management is that when the industry is in a downturn, it will get into trouble or even close down. However, for those enterprises that operate steadily, there will be no bankruptcy problem. On the contrary, it is a good time to expand. Even without the impact of this subprime mortgage crisis, these blindly expanding and investing enterprises will die suddenly due to the rupture of the capital chain sooner or later. The subprime mortgage crisis only made this ending come earlier.

The supporter looked at Gu Yongnian and smiled, "Principal Gu, do you agree with Professor Xu's point of view?"

Gu Yongnian said seriously: "I have always been consistent with Lao Xu. In fact, in addition to the impact caused by the subprime crisis, there are deeper reasons for the collapse of some enterprises. First, it has a lot to do with the rapid expansion of enterprises in the past three years, because the new generation of entrepreneurs prefer to expand the scale of enterprises through rapid expansion, which often exceeds the affordability of enterprises. High debt and diversified structure make enterprises have extremely poor risk resistance. Second, there is a serious overcapacity in traditional industries, under external demand. In the case of slippery and slow growth of domestic demand, a large number of production lines are bound to be closed. Third, banks draw capital and enterprises have to use private financing to seriously affect the operation of enterprises, amplifying the current crisis. Some media reports make the crisis too pessimistic. At least from what I know, I haven't felt that a large number of enterprises are going to close down.

The host looked at Xu Zhihong and said, "Professor Xu, since you think that the subprime mortgage crisis of many enterprises in China is not the main culprit, do you think there will be a feasible solution?"

Xu Zhihong took out a small blackboard, which listed many titles of feasible solutions, and laughed; "There are methods, such as allowing small and medium-sized enterprise owners to provide personal credit guarantees in the face of possible "asphyxiation death" in enterprises. Small and medium-sized enterprises mainly want to gain the trust of banks, so they can only take out their own private property mortgages. Give it to the bank to maintain the operation of the enterprise, otherwise the bank can only seal up the assets of the enterprise and forcibly recover the loan according to the emergency procedures.

Of course, I think the government should provide credit guarantees for those leading and excellent enterprises such as Feng, and even inject capital directly into these enterprises to attract more social funds to intervene.

And it can also expand the domestic market, expand the share of domestic sales, reduce costs, improve employee skills, and speed up the development and launch of new products.

The supporter looked at Gu Yongnian and said, "Principal Gu, do you have anything to add? Just now, netizens sent a message saying that in addition to serving as the president of Yanjing University, you are also the director of the Cultural Market Department. We all know the main responsibilities of the Cultural Market Department: to formulate cultural market development plans and policies, draft relevant laws and regulations; guide the comprehensive law enforcement of the cultural market, and promote sub-provincial and municipal levels below. Integration of law enforcement forces of cultural, radio, television, press and publication and other departments; industry supervision of business activities in the cultural field; supervision of literary and artistic performances, cultural entertainment and cultural art markets, and guidance for the supervision of private institutions engaged in performing arts activities. There are other network matters, so can you give advice to our domestic enterprises from the perspective of the government?

Gu Yongnian said seriously, "In fact, in addition to the efforts of enterprises, local governments should also be involved. In order to help enterprises cope with the current difficulties, the city should set up an "leading group office for entering and promoting development" to coordinate enterprises to deal with problems. For local leading enterprises such as Jintian Copper, the local government should even help the enterprise clarify rumors to the outside world through government credit and actively coordinate. Banks, suppliers and customers deal with difficulties.

To strengthen the innovation of financial institutions and vigorously develop financial institutions that can provide small and medium-sized enterprises, small and medium-sized joint-stock banks, small loan companies, rural credit cooperatives, equity investment companies and other financial institutions, we must inject confidence into the entire private economy in terms of capital channels, and encourage those enterprises that have or are about to go bankrupt. Private capital actively participates in restructuring.

And I think Guangdong has done a good job in this regard. Recently, the Guiding Opinions on Promoting Foreign Investment and Processing Trade Enterprises to Expand the Internal Sales Work issued by the Guangdong Provincial Department of Foreign Economic Relations and Trade proposed to provide financial incentives for large domestic taxpayers and foreign investment and processing trade enterprises that have created domestic sales brands; organize and introduce Guide enterprises to participate in domestic exhibitions and fairs, and provide a good display and service platform for products to enter the domestic market.

The host said, "President Gu, Professor Xu, since we have made an analysis of the current domestic economy as a whole, finally, our netizens have another question they want to ask, that is, how related is the Feng crisis to this subprime mortgage crisis? Can it be solved as soon as possible? Will the government intervene?

Xu Zhihong looked at Gu Yongnian. Gu Yongnian did not refuse and said solemnly, "As far as I know, the reason why the Feng family has this step is just that the market competition is fierce and the opponents are too tough. These people can find some clues from all kinds of big and small things that have appeared in the past year, so Feng's crisis and subprime loans. The crisis has nothing to do with it. Again, the impact of this financial crisis on our country is not great. The second problem is that the Feng's crisis has actually been solved. Although it can be seen from the Feng's witness of its current assets by the government departments in the first two months, it can be seen that the Feng doesn't care about it. It's just that someone is just a prank, and Some time ago, there was news that Zhejiang Jianghe Group cooperated with Feng to develop real estate and new energy. Obviously, Feng has been on the right track and is now in the recovery period. Third, the government has never let go of such major domestic enterprises. So please believe in our government and reform for more than 30 years. As a historical witness, we have no reason to suspect that our government can't do it!"

The host said, "Thank you, both of you, thank you and the audience in front of the TV. That's all for today's program. See you in the next episode."

After the program, Gu Yongnian left with Mr. Xu Zhihong. At the gate of the TV station, Gu Yongnian looked around for a long time. When he almost scolded, he saw Mu Fan squatting on the steps and smoking.

Xu Zhihong looked at Gu Yongnian's strange look and looked left and right, and said, "Lao Gu, what's wrong with you?"

Gu Yongnian smiled and pulled the latter to walk towards Mu Fan. When he got to him, he kicked him. Mu Fan had just smoked an ordinary cigarette and almost kicked it off. He turned around and saw that it was Gu Yongnian. He stood up with a bitter face and said, "Gu Lao, if you don't take this, you have to pay for it. You treat tonight." /P>

"Good boy, you dare to repudiate with me, right?" Gu Yongnian looked at Mu Fan and laughed angrily. "I'd like to introduce you to an elder. This is Xu Zhihong, a famous mouthman in Financial Street. He criticizes people. It's really that parents don't care~~~"

"Bullshit!" Hearing Gu Yongnian speak ill of himself in front of a junior, Xu Zhihong cursed. Just do it,

Seeing the two people, Mu Fan smiled and said, "I'm sorry to trouble you tonight. Please invite you to dinner. I don't know if you are free?"

"I have! Old Xu must have it too!" Gu Yongnian laughed;

Xu Zhihong frowned and looked at Mu Fan and said, "Do you have any wine?"

"You can always drink as much as you can, and I'll accompany you!" Mu Fan said respectfully;

"Well, if there is no wine, I will definitely scold you. Let's go. Where are you going? I know a good place to come with me..." With that, Xu Zhihong's old man with a sharp-mouthed monkey-like cheeks was the first to walk forward, as if there was no one behind him. Mu Fan and Gu Yongnian were stunned. The two looked at each other and smiled, and followed him.