(Turn) the culprit of the demise of the Shu Han Dynasty
An extremely wise politician can't do without making mistakes. After Liu Bei's death, Zhuge Liang presided over the Shu government and fought in the south and the north. There were many mistakes. Therefore, no one is perfect, and no one is perfect. This sentence is still very true, and it is difficult for great men to be an exception.
However, if you can keep your mind calm and clear-headed, you can minimize the harm of mistakes. If it is mixed with emotional factors, knowing that it can be done but not, and knowing that it cannot be done, it is bound to bring very bad consequences.
Zhuge Liang, as a classical type of "doing his best and dying", the admiration for the greatness of his personality is one thing; but it is another thing to analyze his gains and losses from his adherence to the wrong Northern Expedition policy, which led to the premature defeat of the State of Shu.
He wants to make a statement, because everyone is against the Northern Expedition. The main reason is that the national strength is not strong, and people are determined. After years of fighting, they can't overcome the burden. The top priority should enable the people of Shu to take a breath, rest and heal the wounds of war. However, regardless of this general resistance, Zhuge Liang insisted on his policy of Beiding Central Plains, opening up territory, restoring the Han Dynasty, and inheriting the unification.
First, he went from the Han thief to Shu and Wei, to Wei without Shu, to "Wang Ye is not biased, but only to wait for death, who will fight against it?" The wrong judgment was made. Although Wei had the intention to swallow Shu, after Cao Rui came to power, he advocated digging trenches and waiting for the internal chaos of Wu and Shu. He missed such a period of relative calmness and recuperation. Second, because he was entrusted by the previous emperor to fight against thieves, he was restless and unwilling to eat. This emotional obligation made him disregard whether it was possible for customers and act rashly. To a large extent, it is not enough to maintain personal prestige and dignity, which is not enough to be trained. Third, he also mistakenly believes that if we continue to confront each other, there will inevitably be a sudden and elite emptiness. Therefore, it is advocated to fight early and fight while these generals with combat experience are still there. This way of thinking is related to his personal overconfidence and lack of confidence in later generations. In fact, war is a complex system engineering, and the presence or absence of individual people does not play a decisive role. Therefore, after a failed war that just ended, even he himself admitted that "the people are poor and the soldiers are exhausted" and "the success or failure is blunt, and it is not the minister's ability to see it" to launch another unrelentless attack. Of course, the prospect is conceivable.
The "Master Table" collected in "Guwen Guanzhi" is the most well-known article of Zhuge Liang. He did his best and died," and Du Fu's poem extending from these two sentences, "He died before he was a master, and the hero was full of tears", which constituted Zhuge Liang's best character for thousands of generations and a loyal model admired by all people.
Therefore, literature can touch people's hearts if it wants to be rendered. We call this effect "sensation"; and the result of sensationalism often has a drawback. Of course, the feelings of "The Teacher's Table" are sincere, expressing Zhuge Liang's loyalty, which is simply beyond words. However, if you study the internal and external situation of the State of Shu at that time, just after the labor expedition and the return of Meng Huo, Zhuge Liang will go north. From the consequences of these two mobilization orders to the State of Shu, it is quite worth considering.
It is a quality that a politician must have to judge the situation and do it according to his ability. However, he ignored the strength of the country, the hearts and backs of the people, the reality of the enemy, and the surrounding environment, so he had to challenge Cao Wei, which was really a presting. It seems that all the leaders who are happy have learned from the hardships because of the hardships, and those who have suffered will continue to take the hardships. There are also many people who have suffered more. Therefore, for the second time, even A Dou persuaded him: "Fang has become a power. Wu Wei has never been a bandit. Why does his father enjoy peace?"
After A Dou became emperor, he was an undesirable mediocrity. This sentence came to the point, although his starting point was not correct. Unfortunately, his emperor is a puppet. If he keeps his word, rests, and fixes the border and defenses, he may really be able to settle down. However, Zhuge Liang was desperate. He fought for many years, labored the army to disturb the people, and domestic and diplomatic difficulties, so that the situation of peace in Western Shu could not last long.
"Shu Ji" records: "In the beginning of the Jin Dynasty, Fufeng Wang Junzhen Guanzhong, Sima Gaoping, Liu Bao, Changshi Xingyang Huan and other officials and doctors discussed Zhuge Liang together. At that time, many Tan people ridiculed his body was not a place, and they worked hard for the people of Shu, and their strength was small, and they could not measure their virtue and strength."
Wu Dahong and Zhang Yan wrote "The Silence": "The soldiers are murderous weapons, and the warriors are also in danger. Some countries do not protect the territory and calm the people, but open up land and conquer the world, but they have no plan. Prime Minister Zhuge is really talented, but he is in an isolated place. The soldiers are less than 50,000. He can be closed to guard the danger, and the king and minister have nothing to do. The air labor brigade, no age, failed to enter the place close at hand, opened the foundation of the emperor, and made the country suffer from its desolation, and the western land suffered from its labor.
These are all people who are at the same time as Zhuge Liang, or a little later. For his frequent Northern Expeditions, it can be seen that the insightful people at that time did not care much about his Liu Chu Qishan. Zhuge Liang ignored the national strength and attacked frequently, which was really because he was too confident and conceited. But this kind of psychological imbalance is not just Kong Ming. Once the leader becomes a self-reputed talent, there is a desire for fame, immortality, and the desire for monument. Even on an occasion like the literary world where there is actually no opera and singing, some people have no time to build a temple for themselves in order to be worshipped alive. It's really very It's ridiculous. Kong Ming believes that after Cao Cao's death, the State of Wei has no more rivals. He is too underestimated the enemy, too impatient, and wants to open the blockade of the State of Shu. Of course, this is also the result of his belief in his omnipotence and pursuing immortal reputation too much?
This terrible desire is also the famous complex that many characters have had since then. Even if the family is ruined and the country and the people are harmed, I can't help but make a monument to myself in the long scroll of history. Zhuge Liang's dispatch of troops is definitely a tragedy caused by his character. Because he is an extremely human minister and a powerful country, naturally no one can control him. As a result, he paid a huge price for this. And everyone watched him move towards the final failure step by step, and it was irreparable.
Therefore, his cronin Ma Yan thought, "If you return to the south, the army and horses are exhausted, and it is only appropriate to save money. How can we resume the expedition?" He can't listen. Zhao Zhou's bitter shou: "Why are you strong?" He also didn't think so, and even the brainless master A Dou couldn't stop his willingness to move north.
I'm afraid it's a big mistake of this great man to go his own way and kill the state of Shu.
If he does not exhaust the national strength as Zhang Yan said, the battle between Shu and Wei may be another result.
Zhuge Liang has always regarded Wei Yan as an enemy, at least as a dissident, distrustful and unusable. A common person, with prejudice, suffers at most, but a leader looks at people with stereotypes, metaphysical and idealism, not only harms others, but also harms himself.
The reason why Kong Ming went to the south and then the north was to calm down the troubles in the backyard, calm down the southern ethnic minorities who disturbed the border courts, and then set aside their hands to carry out a strategic counterattack, out of Qi Mountain, cross the Qinling Mountains, and close to the Wei River, and go straight to Jifu. He wants to follow in the footsteps of Cao Cao's Battle of Guandu and Zhou Yu's Battle of Chibi, and turn the situation around and realize his political ambitions through a large-scale war.
What he needs most at this time is a trick to make his attack work.
The Romance of the Three Kingdoms is a book about tricks, which has been regarded as a concise textbook by politicians, military strategists, and even all the people who are moved by their hearts. In this book, there are many successful schemes and many failed schemes. There are still some unrealized schemes that have not yet been realized. The most famous is Wei Yan's surprise attack on the Guanzhong in Ziwu Valley.
Unfortunately, this scheme was not conceived by Kong Ming himself, nor was it suggested to him by his proud disciple Ma Yan, but by Wei Yan, who he didn't like. I think he must have been moved when he heard it at that time, but because of his emotional refusal, this flying soldier's plan was shot by Zhuge Liang and died in his womb. . Otherwise, Wei Yan led his troops to Chang'an. I don't know how to rewrite the history of the Three Kingdoms.
It seems that a great man is easy to say, but difficult to do.
At that time, not long after Cao Rui, the lord of Wei, was appointed, Sima Yi was idle, which was the most important link. And Xiahou, who has no actual combat experience, has military power, which is an excellent opportunity to take advantage of the opportunity to attack. Therefore, Wei Yan suggested to the commander-in-chief Zhuge Liang: "Wen Xiahou, the son-in-law, is also timid and resourceless. Today, it extends 5,000 elite soldiers and 5,000 negative grain. It comes straight from the praise, along the Qinling Mountains to the east, and then to the north at noon. In just ten days, you can go to Chang'an. When he heard that the delay was coming, he would abandon the city and escape. Chang'an Zhongwei Yushi and Jingzhao Taishou! Hengmen Pavilion and the Valley of the scattered people are full of food. Compared with the gathering in the east, it takes more than 20 days, and the public comes from the inclined valley, which is enough to reach. In this way, it can be obtained in one fell swoop to the west of Xianyang!" Unexpectedly and unprepared, this was the most common tactic used by military strategists, but Zhuge Liang refused on the grounds of stability.
It is true that he has been cautious all his life, but he is by no means afraid to take risks. In fact, the empty city plan is much more dangerous than the rapid attack on Chang'an by sending troops in Ziwu Valley. Later, Sima Yi said to Zhang Yi, "If I use troops, I will take Chang'an from the Meridian Valley first. It's much earlier!" Therefore, if Sima Yi is the commander-in-chief of Shu, he will definitely adopt Wei Yan's idea. It can be seen that Zhuge Liang's unwillingness to adopt the flying soldier's plan is indeed a serious mistake.
In the final analysis, can war not take any risks!
In addition to his military conservatism, he had to find the reason for this mistake from his feelings and personality. The literati are always like this. They are thin with each other, and they are all because of jealousy. Politicians and strategists are not necessarily perfect, and they can't be said to be a little jealous of talent. Zhuge Liang's rejection of Wei Yan has his personal emotional factors.
When God created people, he designed this emotion as a driving force to encourage competition, right? Once beyond this range, it will inevitably constitute a nuisance or invasion of others. Look at the viciousness of Othello, who was jealous and strangled the innocent Des Dimona by the throat and strangled her to death. You know that if jealousy occurs, it is a terrible feeling.
From the perspective of the literati circle, it is more interesting. Shaohua has passed away, and he hates all the people who have a long time to come; when the scenery is no longer, he is jealous of all the beauty of purple and red; when he is lonely, he naturally resents the bustling sound of the window; when Jiang Lang is exhausted, he regards the fresh behavior of the literary field as an enemy, and he has to grit his teeth. Therefore, Zhuge Liang, who has been struggling with "eating less and doing too much", does not dare to take such a potential opponent lightly.
Liu Bei trusted Wei Yan very much before his death. The former lord was the king of Hanzhong and moved to Chengdu. He should be a heavy general to suppress Hanchuan. Everyone thought that he must be in Zhang Fei, and Fei also promised himself with his heart. The forerunner was the general of Zhenyuan, the governor of Hanzhong. He led the governor of Hanzhong, and the whole army was shocked. However, when talking about Ma Yan with Zhuge Liang, he thought that it was "exaggeration, it can't be used much, you should observe it"!
Liu Bei's talent is mediocre, but his views on Ma Yan prove that he is right. Therefore, he appreciates Wei Yan and entrusts him with heavy responsibilities. It is by no means a matter of prosperation. There is something Wei Yan can trust.
Zhuge Liang is "deeply different" with Ma Yan, just because Ma Yan is good at talking about soldiers and can obey his will, and he has always been skeptical and hostile to Wei Yan, and he is about to push Wei Yan out and beheading. To put it bluntly, Wei Yan doesn't buy him much.
"Records of the Three Kingdoms" contains: "It is often said that Liang is timid, and he sighs that he hates himself endlessly." It seems that the contradiction between their handsome and generals has long been quite sharp. Therefore, when Zhuge Liang designed to burn Sima Yi and his son in the upper valley, the commander even wanted to cremate Wei Yan together.
It can be seen that the talented Zhuge Liang may not have complex jealousy. And once you are jealous and hateful, you can do everything.
Chinese people's evaluation of people, they don't pay much attention to the aspect that people are constantly changing, bad may become better, good may become bad, this is one; after forming a fixed view, good will always be good, bad, will always be bad, until the coffin is settled, this is the second; the person who is denied evaluation, no matter how good they are, will not be reversed. The finalized view is three; so in the end, the extreme trend formed by the whole society has made the person unable to extricate himself and can only go further and further to the opposite of himself. When re-examine the character Wei Yan in history, can it be said that Zhuge Liang did not go wrong? Is his unchanging view of Wei Yan correct? A high-ranking leader absolutely believes in his saint, and everyone also praises his saint, which is definitely a terrible thing.
It is precisely because of his excessive view of his subordinates as enemies that his narrowness, tolerance, and his jealousy have been difficult to distinguish between good and bad. Therefore, the final arrangement before his death prompted Wei Yansheng to become chaotic. The Shu army, which was already very weak in combat effectiveness, has been at the end of a strong crossbow and is unbearable.
Wei Yan's rebellion began with Zhuge, which is not unreasonable.
For Wei Yan, a strong general with military intelligence, practical experience and courage and resourcefulness, Zhuge Liang's feelings for this subordinate who does not take his dignity as a challenging meaning, although Zhuge Liang's feelings are particularly obscure and tortuous and not so easy to detect, there are still traces in the inner world.
With a weak army, it is going to fight a head-on war with a powerful opponent, but in the name of not taking risks, giving up such a fighter can't find any other reason than emotional rejection.
The one who seizes the city is the general, and the one who seizes the country is handsome.
Zhuge Liang is handsome in politics. It is his three-point world and the decision of Wu to fight against Cao that he can join the weakest power between Wu and Wei and become a power. Shu Neng Jianguo's title of emperor played an important role in the three points. If Zhuge Liang had not designed for Liu Bei to stand on Jingzhou and seek the blueprint of Yizhou, the defeat of Fancheng and Jiangling, according to Liu Bei's idea, he ran south to Cangwu and defected to Wu Chen, at best, he would be a bandits.
But Zhuge Liang can't say that he is a very successful military strategist. At least he did not cross the battle like Cao Cao, defeating Yuan Shao's 600,000 horses and unifying the north. He did not command the Battle of Chibi like Zhou Yu, destroy Cao Cao's 300,000 troops and consolidate Jiangdong. Due to the military achievements of Eastern Wu, the formation of a three-point political pattern was promoted. As a politician, Zhuge Liang also wants to follow in the footsteps of Cao Cao and Zhou Yu, reverse the situation and realize his political ambitions through a large-scale war, and is famous in history. Therefore, first to conquer Meng Huo in the south, and then to enter Hanzhong in the north, he also wants to smooth out the troubles of the backyard, free his hands to carry out a strategic counterattack, out of Qi Mountain, cross the Qinling Mountains, and the soldiers approaching Weishui, and go straight to Jifu.
However, Zhuge Liang's military talent is only proficient and proficient in local wars that compete for cities and land, such as playing with the calmness of the enemy on the palm of his hand. However, large-scale military operations are inseparable from the far-sighted vision of politicians, judging the situation, and fighting a military war, which is essentially a political war. In this regard, Zhuge Liang, as the coach, has taken care of the other and failed to overcome the disadvantages. He did not understand Cao Wei's national strength and the stability of his rule. He came out of Qishan and challenged blindly, and refused to admit that Liu Shu should stick to the weakness of survival and fight for years. Only the local troops in these few cities have painstakingly made him fight a frontal war that he can't do. Even if he wins a small victory in front of him, it is difficult to change the fate of the final defeat. For a politician, knowing what he can't do is a terrible character tragedy. For ten consecutive years, he went out of Qishan six times, and he returned without success. After so many years of war, the country declined, the soldiers withered, the strength was exhausted, and the people were tired of war. Finally, as soon as he died, the State of Shu also rang the death knell.
Therefore, the success or failure of the country depends on the kings and ministers. The victory or defeat of the war is decided by the general. What kind of monarchs, ministers and generals, and what kind of people are used is the key. When Wu general Zhu Huan was guarding the mouth of Ruxu, thousands of defenders fought heavily against tens of thousands of Cao Ren. All the generals had their own fears. Huan Yuzhi said, "Where the two armies meet each other, the victory or defeat is not in the general." Zhu Huan is brave and cruel, cruel and cruel, which is really not enough, but his words are very insightful.
Now, Zhuge Liang of the State of Shu fought against Wei, Lu Xun of the State of Wu also fought with Wei, and Wu was defeated by Wu, which must be said to be closely related to the commander's command gains and losses. Ma Qian, who was believed in by the State of Shu, lost the street pavilion, and the whole army was defeated, while Zhou Yu, who was believed by the State of Wu, earned Cao Xiu and won a complete victory. The responsibility of the leader is to employ people, and accurately discovering talents, measuring talents, using talents, and trusting talents are the important tasks of the coach. Zhuge Liang put aside the old general like Zhao Yun, the fierce general like Wei Yan, and the young general like Jiang Wei. He only believed in Ma Yan. As a result, the street pavilion was lost, forcing him to sing empty city tricks. If a person uses it improperly, it will affect a group of people. Similarly, if a person uses it right and uses it well, it will also drive a group of people. Zhu Huan, Quanzong and Xu Sheng in the middle of the State of Wu were much inferior to Lv Meng, Gan Ning and Ling Tong in the early period, but Lu Xun's command was determined, left and right coordination, generals worked, and took the initiative to kill the enemy. In particular, Zhou Yu was not weaker than Huang Gai in those years. As a result, Cao Xiu was defeated and died when he returned to Luoyang. Therefore, first, talents should have the opportunity to stand out; second, talents should have room to perform; third, the most important thing is that the use of people should admit the reality of "no gold, no perfect person", be good at using people, promote their strengths, suppress their shortcomings, and not choking food, and seek full blame. People are used as one of the ways to win. People can give full play to their subjective initiative, which is the guarantee of victory.
Zhuge Liang is a great man and a person close to a perfect person, which also makes him have too much self-confidence. People who have too much self-confidence regard themselves very highly and don't pay much attention to others. Due to the lack of the views of the masses, we must do everything in person and do not want to pretend to others. Zhuge Liang governs Shu, uses more plain talents, defends more than enough, and develops weakly, and those who rely on talent and rely on martial arts are often put on hold and abandoned. The cadres in Shuzhong didn't answer. It's not that he didn't know, and it's not that he wasn't in a hurry. It's true that he tried his best to look for talents. However, his standard of employment is rigid and paranoid, which is incomparable compared with Cao Cao's "only meritocracy". Therefore, it is impossible for outstanding characters to appear, which is also the law of not growing grass under a big tree. He absorbed all the sunlight alone, and the grass naturally became lifeless.
Zhuge Liang's wisdom and self-confidence have greatly limited the enthusiasm of his subordinates and cultivated their dependence. Therefore, Sima Yi knows all about the actions of Western Shu, because he only needs to study Zhuge Liang alone. However, the true intention of Eastern Wu is not known. Even Zhou Yu's pseudo-down is doubtful. Because it is impossible to fully grasp the variables of all the generals of Eastern Wu, it is natural that the State of Wei has nothing to do in the battle with the State of Wu.
From this, it can be seen that Lu Xun, who defeated Guan Yu and Liu Bei, is indeed not as rigid and stable as Zhuge Liang, his predecessor, for fear of loss, hesitating and hesitating in appointing the art of war. For example, Wu Zhizhu Huan and Shu Zhi Wei Yan are also brave generals who make plans and are not accepted, but the attitude of the coaches on both sides is very different. Wei Yan was almost killed by Zhuge Liang, so you can know why Wu won and why Shu lost.
This can't help but feel sorry for Zhuge Liang.
When Western Shu was finally defeated in the Jin Dynasty, the number of officials was 280,000, and the number of officials was 40,000, while when Wu surrendered to Jin, the household was 520,000, but the number of officials was only 32,000. How can such a top-heavy country not fail? From this point of view, the bloated bureaucracy left by Zhuge Wan is really a burden for Shu. But with such a large number of cadres, Zhuge Liang did not find a good successor until his death. It is really a sad thing to be so picky. When Gozhangyuan was dying, he was still regretful: "I have seen all the generals, and no one can teach them." Only Jiang Wei is barely qualified, which is really painful enough for him.
"When the water is clear, there will be no fish, and if the water is clear, there will be no one." A shrewd leader can only see the shortcomings and shortcomings of his subordinates. Therefore, "there is no grass under the big tree" is very reasonable. Kong Ming finally got the Wenchen and generals, and the unsustainable situation. It seems that there is no one in Western Shu, but that he doesn't let the talent stand out.