Chapter 257 Market Judgment

With the order of the team leader, the operator attentively pulled down the gate, pressed the button, locked the instrument, and recorded the information.

Behind each group of people, an engineer from Casali Company stared at it, writing something down in his notebook from time to time. Several operators sweated nervously and kept wiping on their overalls, but their expression became more and more focused.

The state-owned enterprise officials of the petrochemical system look focused. I have never eaten pork before. I have seen a pig run. The 120,000-ton methanol project is a little larger than the domestic equipment, and the basic operation is similar. On the one hand, we look at the simulation system, and on the other hand, we also look at whether the level of Dahua Petrochemical is enough to put into production. The layman always thinks that workers do manual work, but they don't know that there is a big difference between technicians, skilled workers and workers. In terms of which, Lu Ban is also an eight-pole mechanic. Whether his apprentice can reach this level or not is still two different.

Enterprises like Sinopec are thinking about selling some domestic catalysts to Dahua, so it has to estimate the amount of Dahua. It is very important to be careful or not to negotiate with major customers.

Director Mao and Ding Zhipeng don't know the technology. They just look at the busy workers below and don't know what's going on. Director Mao didn't seem to understand for a while. He turned his head to Su Cheng and asked inadvertently, "Has Dahua participated in the international oil futures trading?"

The domestic futures trading center was built in the 1990s, but the attention to oil futures was established as early as the early stage of the reform and opening up. Since Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August, international oil prices have soared. By November, the price gap has doubled, involving hundreds of billions of funds, attracting the attention of countless people. Director Mao also seems to be a member of the concern.

Su Cheng's mind turned quickly and said, "At the end of August, I tried to enter the market with 10 million US dollars, earned some, and soon came out. Dahua's small profit is not involved in oil futures trading.

At this time, the Taiwanese businessmen who came with Wang Sheng were full of regret and said, "Dong Su is really cautious. In the crude oil market, the general trend is to invest the money earned, and now it may become hundreds of millions of dollars. Isn't this a free gift?"

Su Cheng smiled and asked, "Really?"

This Taiwanese businessman is also a businessman in the oil industry. He is slightly fat, loosely dressed and smiling. He shook his head like a staff and commented, "Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, Kuwait's quota of millions of barrels a day is over, and Iraq is blocked internationally, and their oil can't be shipped. When the two companies come together, it is not a problem to lose 6 million barrels of crude oil. The Iran-Iraq War has been fought for eight years. Who knows how long it will take this time. Ma Hou cannon said that if you buy crude oil futures in August, you will make more than four or five times more than four times. If you are bold and black-hearted, you will have 10 times more.

Futures are leveraged. In short, it can be easily speculated in futures with bank loans. Therefore, it is not uncommon for the market price to double to get a profit of 10 times or even 20 times.

Su Cheng thought, this man is really a backfire.

Seeing that he didn't think so, the Taiwanese businessman said, "I don't have the conditions for Director Su, otherwise, I will definitely make a lot of money by entering the market. You have your own oil field. At that time, you can not only make a lot of money in futures, but also make more money in the oil field.

Su Cheng couldn't help laughing and said, "It's because I have an oil field, so it's easy to buy a short and how difficult it is. If you make futures as a risk, I have oil fields but double risk.

"Does Su Dong think oil prices will fall?" Oil prices fall, futures lose money, and the income of oil fields will also decrease, so there are two risks.

Su Cheng did not comment and said with a smile, "Whether it goes up or down, I'm not ready to enter the market."

In his impression, the early stage of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, that is, the beginning of August, was the craziest time for oil futures to rise. He also entered the market at this time and participated in just two weeks. Without waiting for the oil price to soar to more than $35, he quickly withdrew and made about 80 million with 10 million

Don't invest more in order to control risks. The more you understand the futures market, the deeper the understanding of the risks of futures in Suchong. Perhaps many people think that they can make a steady profit by knowing the general trend of the market, which can only be used to buy stock index futures, and it is not enough to buy individual stocks - God knows whether the stock index will soar but a company will have a scandal. What makes futures more dangerous is that they fluctuate sharply, and bank leverage exacerbates fluctuations.

Sucheng invested 10 million US dollars. Through more than 10 times the bank leverage, the actual operation was more than 100 million US dollars. The price of crude oil rose by about 70%, and he made 80 million. If he invests 100 million US dollars, there is indeed a chance to make 800 million US dollars. However, if the price of crude oil falls by 10% for a short time, Su Cheng must immediately cover 100 million US dollars. If not, it will explode and die. After that, even if the price of crude oil continues to rise, it has nothing to do with him.

Even in August, when crude oil soared, there was a short downward of 10% or even 20%, more than once. Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was an extremely fast process, and the price of oil also rose from $20 to $28. At this time, many investors will think, has Iraq occupied Kuwait? That's right, 28 dollars should be enough. As long as this idea spreads, the price will fall to $25. At this time, Sucheng will have to fill the same amount of funds, 10 million US dollars, or 100 million US dollars.

There is no doubt that if you don't understand the market and choose to operate full positions, even if Sucheng knows the general trend, he will die because of short-term fluctuations.

In the process of the oil price rising from $20 to $35, and finally more than $40, it fell back to less than $30, which happened repeatedly. Not to mention the full position operation, even if Su City enters with 30 million US dollars, it may also be destroyed by market fluctuations.

In his opinion, there are too many opportunities in the financial market, and there is no need to gamble at all.

It is difficult to agree with other people's ideas. The Taiwanese businessmen sighed: "One after another of the United Nations resolutions on Iraq, there are no 10 and 8 now. It's useless. In my opinion, international sanctions are likely to be the most likely in the end. In that case, oil can only continue to rise. If there is a fight, it is estimated that it will rise faster unless the Soviet Union participates in the war. I don't think so."

At this point, he smiled proudly and said, "So, the rise is inevitable, that is, the problem of more or less."

From the perspective of results, future generations can always analyze the past. However, in history, only a few people can dispel the fog.

That's right. On February 2, the Soviet Union did give up the one-party system, but this does not mean that the Soviet Union's military strength has weakened. In the eyes of ordinary Chinese people, the big brother of the Soviet Union was not so daunting, but he was not weak enough to be bullied. They still have the largest number of nuclear weapons in the world, the largest number of conventional weapons... If they support Iraq, even if they just "rent" weapons, it can give the United States an incomparable headache. The Soviet anti-aircraft missiles can definitely beat down the American plane.

Not only that, many military experts from [China] countries have always believed that with the number and weapons and equipment of the Iraqi army, as well as the experience of the eight-Iraq war, they can fully resist the ground attack of the United States, and at best they will suffer some losses. People who hold this idea participate in the futures market, lose their trousers, and may do more, looking forward to the happiness of turning over.

Considering the normal thinking, it is estimated that Taiwanese businessmen did not think of the possibility of oil prices falling. If they analyze history, his basis is more complete. The Middle East War in the 1970s caused world oil prices to rise permanently. The war that also happened in the Middle East, why can't oil prices rise permanently again?

In fact, there is only one possible way for oil prices to fall. The war explained at the fastest speed, and the Middle East returned to the pre-war situation. Two conditions are indispensable.

Here, reality is a joke on history, and both conditions have been completed. Therefore, the rise in oil prices in 1990 was destined to be a pulsed rise. The price once rose from $20 to more than $40, and eventually fell back to $20. Just half a year has passed, and nothing seems to have happened.

Su Cheng recalled history and looked at the confident expression of Taiwanese businessmen. He said with emotion, "The good time for oil prices to rise has passed. It's better to look on coldly."

Director Mao noticed and asked, "Does Dong Su think the oil price will stop rising?"

Su Cheng affirmed that "yes" and added in an instant: "A short rise, such as lasting for a day or two, is still possible. It's too difficult to grasp, so it's better not to enter."

"What if you have already entered?"

Director Mao said in public that it was impossible for him to participate in futures trading. In the 1990s, there were not many private assets for national cadres. Since it's not him, it's a state act. Su Cheng thought for a moment and said, "If you can't quit, it's better to buy a short than to buy."

The Taiwanese businessman asked in disbelief, "What's the basis for short-selling?"

"In short, the situation in the Middle East is chaotic, oil prices are rising, the situation is stabilizing, and oil prices are falling. I tend to stabilize the situation. Sucheng didn't say anything about the United States's speed, which was not popular in 1990. This hot war is the best description of a big baptism "unexpected" for both the national military and the world army.

Others only think that Sucheng's stabilization is a stalemate, which is also the situation after September. In addition to declaring Kuwait as a province, Iraq has no large-scale military operations, and oil prices have been slowly falling.

This kind of decline is quite dangerous for many speculators. Director Mao said with concern, "If Dahua operates, can it make a profit in this case?"

Su Cheng hesitated and said, "It's difficult, and the financial pressure may be great."

"But can it be profitable?"

Su Cheng nodded slightly.

A smile appeared on Director Mao's white face, and he meditated and stopped talking.

At this time, there were bursts of cheers below, some from workers and some from the personnel of state-owned enterprises.

Buckman shook hands with Dahua workers with a smile on his face. When Su Cheng saw it, he quickly pleaded guilty and went down. In his eyes, speculation in the financial market is far less attractive than industrial development.