Chapter 271 Can't get the table
"In the coming time, oil prices will fall. Therefore, I think the country's oil policy should be conservative. Maintain the status quo and prepare for the decline in oil prices. Su Cheng's straightforward answer said his opinion. In other words, I re-emphasized my opinion.
The wrong choice will lead to great losses. If possible, Su Cheng will try his best to convince Su Zhenguo, which has nothing to do with individuals, but about the country.
If the triangular debt is that the meat is rotten in the pot, the wrong step of oil futures is equivalent to giving the meat to someone else.
Director Mao and Zhu Enbo both acted very seriously. On such a private occasion, in the face of the three men surnamed Su in the face of the old, middle-aged and young, it is inevitable to make people think.
Zhu Enbo did not want to offend Su City, but he also had a strong sense of responsibility and insisted: "At the end of November, the United Nations passed the war dispute case. The current situation is that the United States has won legal justice, and they will launch a war against Iraq at any time. Once the war begins, the price of oil will rise to an unbearable level.
Zhu Enbo was a little excited, and his small eyes were wide open: "Sousu Dong, our country has a small profit, and the rise in international oil prices will eventually be transmitted to the domestic manufacturing system. At that time, the prices of fertilizers, agricultural films, fishing nets and fishery supplies will also rise, driving the prices of grain, vegetables and meat, and the price of chemical fibers will also rise, that is, the price of clothes will rise. In addition, the rise in rubber prices and fuel prices will also increase the burden on the country.
In China in 1990, there were fewer vehicles. The energy used for heating and production is mainly coal, which is not as impulsive as the United States does in the United States. However, the price of chemical fiber is a big problem. Nouns such as "good", "nylon", "polyesteron" and "acron" are all chemical fiber raw materials made of petroleum. At this time, the production of cotton and wool in China is very small. Petrochemical fiber products are the main source of clothing, and domestic clothing prices are expensive enough. If it is hit by this again, the textile industry will first have a big problem.
Su Cheng admitted that what Zhu Enbo said was reasonable, but it was just a reason.
He thought for a moment. He said, "You're just talking about the change of oil prices under ordinary conditions. The problem now is that the Gulf crisis has advanced the rise in oil prices. From $18 to $38, up to $40. It has more than doubled, even if the war really starts, that's the case. What's more, the oil price has now fallen back to about $35. Once you buy more, you will first face a big book loss.
"In the early days of the war, there must be a big increase in oil. With the extension of the war, oil prices will also increase steadily. Moreover, the war may involve Saudi Arabia, once the Middle East is broken. It is possible for oil prices to rise ridiculously..." Zhu Enbo breathed a sigh and said, "Unless our country is an oil exporter, it is aimed at crude oil itself. Our country imports a lot of refined oil every year, and there are more petrochemical products. At that time. These things will grow wildly. If you don't buy crude oil to offset it, it will cause great losses.
Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil producer and the country with the most oil storage facilities, just like OPEC's buffer pool. If Iraq invades Saudi Arabia and produces certain results, the world oil market will immediately collapse.
Director Mao nodded unconsciously. In their view, Iraq, with hundreds of thousands of iron horses and a large number of high-precision equipment, is a real threat to Saudi Arabia. During the beginning of the ground war, Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply and utilization were problematic.
The public's theory, and the mother-in-law's theory is the situation at present. Although it was difficult to convince the other party, Su Cheng still tried his best and said, "Let's not discuss what will happen in the Gulf War. However, it has been four months from mid-August to mid-December. Americans haven't started fighting yet, just to be fully prepared for the worst. Is China afraid of oil prices rising? The United States and Western countries are even more afraid that no one wants the third oil crisis. Therefore, as a participant and organizer of the war, the United States has done a lot of work. I guess that once the war begins, the United States will put strategic oil reserves on the market. The oil reserves of the member countries of the International Energy Agency are as high as 3.6 billion barrels, which can be consumed by the world for 96 days, which is a great force.
Zhu Enbo shook his head and said, "At the beginning of the war, the United States may invest strategic oil. However, once the oil supply in the Middle East is tight, or the front is extended, oil prices will rise retaliatoryly. The United States will not only stop the release of strategic oil, but may also counter-purchase. Let me say one possibility. While Iraq uses missiles and other equipment to blockade the Persian Gulf, and then strikes Saudi Arabia's oil facilities, the oil supply will immediately become difficult.
Historically, the United States and multinational forces have deployed a large number of anti-aircraft guns and missiles in the Saudi oil field, and used thick concrete to protect the control computer of the oil field, which is Iraq's trick.
Saudi Arabia also did not drop the chain. It used a large number of small boats to shuttle and transport oil to large oil tankers outside the Persian Gulf, trying to maintain oil exports at the pre-war level.
Not only that, the major Western oil companies also cooperated with the government's appeal and did not take the opportunity to raise prices. On the day of the war, Exxon, Shefron, Continental Oil, Atlantic Petroleum and other group companies all announced the freezing of oil prices...
However, all this is not necessarily what happened. Bush Sr. tried his best to come back. In order to convince the Saudi royal family and the oil company, he spent an unknown amount of energy. In the four or five months since Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the diplomatic direction of the U.S. government has been used for this.
It is now the end of December, and Su Cheng believes that these historical facts will still happen. But he can't use these as a reason.
There are too many variables.
Saudi oil fields do have the possibility of being ignited, the Middle East oil routes do have the possibility of being cut off, and oil companies do have the possibility of killing for money...
However, who knows before it happened?
In 1990, China not only expected the Gulf War to become the Vietnam War, but also the Soviet Union to help Iraq. According to the Cold War mentality, it was normal for the Soviet Union to subsidize their servants to participate in the war. Although they are in a mess in China, it is not difficult to send a few ships of arms.
In the way of backfire and reasoning afterwards, many people can say the truth. But before the war begins, who can guess the details?
Like Gorbachev, who has made the wrong decision for half his life, who knows whether the next decision is right or wrong?
The luck of China's reform lies in the fact that countries keep making mistakes in front of us. The Soviet Union adopted "shock therapy", and as a result, the economy was in a mess. As a result, China adopted a two-track price system, delaying the crisis caused by full marketization. The Japanese Prime Minister happily agreed to the "Plaza Agreement". As a result, the yen appreciated far beyond expectations, and China took control of the exchange rate...
No matter how wise the judge is, in the face of the fog, he is actually confused.
Su Cheng is not confused, but it is impossible to convince Zhu Enbo. He turned his goal to Director Mao and Su Zhenguo and said, "The task of the State Reserve Bureau should first be to ensure the safety of the national supply of materials. We are now an oil exporter. First of all, we should consider hedging and choose to buy short. If the oil price rises, our profits will remain unchanged, the oil price will fall, and our profits will not change. Let's see the changes in the oil market.
This is the safest way to do it. Although you can't make money, it is not easy to lose money.
Zhu Enbo said uncomfortunately, "My work unit is in the State Reserve Bureau, but my report is prepared to be provided to Sinopec, PetroChina and other central enterprises. They have profit-making tasks and guarantee tasks, which should be treated separately.
"It is nominally an enterprise, but Sinopec is essentially responsible for stabilizing domestic prices."
Su Dongyuan snorted with dissatisfaction: "Twilight!"
If it is Su Xing, he will immediately bow his head and be taught.
Su Cheng's eyes were wide open and he said, "During the war, anything can happen. When it is difficult to make a judgment, it is natural to focus on stability. Does such a big country still need to use market speculation to raise funds? There is nothing to be proud of if you win, but it is troublesome to lose. Moreover, there are always people who lose their pants when they enter the casino.
When Hou Haiqing heard Su Cheng talk about the casino again, his eyelids moved and he quickly lowered his head.
Su Dongyuan grabbed the handle and choked, "The futures market is a casino. Why did you go in?"
"I'm still young and can't lose." This is for the twilight.
Su Zhenguo waved his hand, interrupted the gunpowder-flavored conversation between the two, and asked with a smile, "Xiao Zhu, tell me, if you are asked to buy futures, how much are you going to buy?"
A rare opportunity to perform!
Zhu Enbo desperately mobilized his brain: it is not good to buy more futures, and it is not good to buy less.
He thought of the $87 million futures document from Su City. Zhu Enbo hesitated for a moment and said, "I'm going to do short-term futures for a period of time. The contract amount is about 200 million US dollars. When the war starts, I will march towards the medium and long term. This can not only ensure profits, but also ensure China's oil safety and improve the profits of the oil industry. According to the situation, medium- and long-term futures contracts can be raised to 500 million US dollars.
Judging from the government funds in 1990, this is really a lot of money.
Su Zhenguo turned to Su Cheng and asked, "How much are you going to buy?"
"The mortgage is $100 million, and the contract amount is between 1 billion and 2 billion." What Su Cheng said was extremely certain.
Zhu Enbo was stunned and thought to himself: How dare!
Su Cheng's eyes, nose, nose and heart.
Su Zhenguo asked without hesitation, "What about the petrochemical base of the Haicang plan? Are you still involved?"
"Of course." Su Cheng's tone is more certain.