Chapter 270 State Reserve Bureau
At 9 p.m., the black car passed through the dim Chang'an Street. The ** portrait on the tower was looming, and the red wall of the Forbidden City was calm and solemn.
Hou Haiqing is Su Dongyuan's son-in-law. It is difficult to see Su Zhenguo himself on weekdays. Thinking of the next scene, he couldn't calm down for a long time, and his body also twisted around in the back seat.
He turned slightly, but saw that Su Cheng's face was calm, and he unconsciously said, "Mr. Su asked about the trend of oil. I guess it should be used as a reference for the policy. Do you want to prepare anything? For example, I can find someone to bring books and materials.
Su Cheng moved his neck and seemed to be a little dissatisfied with his broken comfort in the car. He said in a low voice, "The trend is nothing more than a rise and fall. Do I need to predict the specific number?"
"There must be evidence." Hou Haiqing's mood is actually more excited than Sucheng's.
Su Cheng smiled and said, "There is a good reason for predicting the price, whether it goes up or down. There is a good reason. As a result, there is only one possibility that it is correct.
Hou Haiqing bowed his head and thought about it. Indeed, he, a person who doesn't know much about the oil economy, can also come up with several reasons for oil price increases, and several reasons for oil price decline. If you look at the other side, it is sufficient.
However, if you want him to say the rise and fall of oil, Hou Haiqing can't say it. Especially when it rises and when it falls, it is completely blackened.
Although it is called by various domestic policy research institutions, they are all buying lottery tickets. If you let them pay their own money to bet on the rise and fall, you will pretend to be mute.
** In China in the decade, there was an extreme lack of experience in business and finance in the Western world. After 30 years of the baptism of planned economy, the local decision makers are either the sons of poor middle peasants or the sons of meritorious officials. Except for the top leaders who have been abroad. I have stayed abroad and seen Chinese people under the age of 30 or 40 outside the Western flower world. There are also several people who have really seen the prototype of the market economy, and even books are lacking, and there are many distortions. The Chinese of those years. I often find a biography of business celebrities and read it as a management textbook. It has the demeanor of Mei Chaofeng learning the Jiuyin Zhenjing.
Facts have proved that there are not a few business geniuses learned through celebrity biographies, but most of them are Jiuyin white bone claws. Not to mention the complete Jiuyin Zhenjing, it is difficult to get in touch.
Do oil business, refine finished oil, and engage in chemical plants. It is enough to use the tricks of Jiuyin white bone claws. However, to predict the rise and fall of oil prices, you have to have a full set of Jiuyin Zhenjing. Or you can predict the future.
Everyone says. When the war begins, the price of oil will rise. But this was not the case in the Gulf War in 1991. And it's the opposite number. During the crisis, oil prices jumped three times a day, and during the war, oil prices fell three times a day.
Financial institutions that made predictions before the war, especially those in developing countries, lost a sea of blood. In fact, it is not surprising that before the beginning of the Gulf War, military intelligence agencies around the world had all kinds of omissions in the process and results of the war. What are the mistakes of commercial intelligence agencies?
Su Cheng is confident in the answer and doesn't care about the reasons for those scholars to talk nonsense at all.
Hou Haiqing can't do this. He deliberately mentioned: "Today, in addition to Mr. Su, there will be comrades from other departments attending. Some comrades' opinions may be contrary to yours, so there must be theoretical support."
Seeing that he was really thinking about himself, Su Cheng thanked him gratefully and then said, "In addition to the hedging part, I shorted tens of millions of dollars of oil futures in the London market. Is there any better theoretical support than this?"
Hou Haiqing was stunned.
Su Cheng said flatly, "Why do you think everyone believes in my judgment? Because I bet with the capital. Above the casino, all theoretical masters are liars, and only the gamblers on the court are the most credible.
Hou Haiqing coughed heavily and said, "Why is this a gambler? This is the judgment of the capital market and the foresight of the market."
"You are good at theory."
"Philosophy is studied in school." Hou Haiqing said shyly and proudly.
"You don't seem to have graduated with a bachelor's degree?"
"I studied as a graduate student at the National People's Congress. Major in philosophy of science and technology. Hou Haiqing said in restalgia, "It's really difficult to learn logic, Western philosophy, natural philosophy, philosophy of science, philosophy of technology..."
Su Cheng thought leisurely: This man is really a good life. In a few years, he will have to go to the university to teach ideological and moral education and Ma Zhe...
The motorcade bypassed the square and stopped in front of a side door of the Great Hall of the People on time. When he arrived here, it showed that it was a formal meeting. Su Cheng put away all kinds of ideas, straightened the whole cashmere coat, and followed Hou Haiqing.
There are four people in a small living room.
Sitting is Su Zhenguo, next to Su Dongyuan, and then Director Mao, whom Su Cheng just met. A man with small eyes of about 30 years stood to greet him. Su Cheng began to think that he was someone's secretary. After the introduction, he knew that he was a cadre of the State Reserve Bureau.
Needless to say, this is today's professional. Strictly speaking, the cadres of the State Reserve Bureau can also be professionals in the futures industry. They are also one of the few units in China that are allowed to participate in foreign futures trading.
The national material reserves are often hundreds of thousands of tons or even millions of tons. Using the hedging method of the futures market, the price can be locked. Although it will not make money because of the rise of the futures market, it will not lose money because of the decline of the international market. From the perspective of national reserves, it is the most suitable.
The most expensive "tuition fees" after China's reform and opening up include the training fees of the State Reserve Bureau.
Su Cheng's brain turned very fast. Suddenly, he sat on the side of Su Zhenguo, completely ignoring Su Dongyuan's beard and staring.
As a father, Su Dongyuan's mood is probably complicated. After Su Xing was double-opened, he had no way to go in his official career, and he would only sell bills in business. In order to avoid being involved, Su Dongyuan stopped Su Xing's commercial attempts and raised him like a pet. Now he is almost abolished.
The rise of Sucheng was beyond Su Dongyuan's expectation, and even to the point that could not be ignored. But the relationship between the two is also extremely frozen, and I'm afraid it will be difficult to bridge it in their lifetime.
Su Zhenguo did not give them much room for emotional fermentation. Looking at Su Cheng sitting firmly, he leaned on the sofa and asked, "Su Cheng, Dahua Industrial Group, have bought a lot of oil empty orders?"
"Yes."
"What about the specific quantity?"
"It's now $87 million, and the price is concentrated between $35 and $40." Su Cheng didn't expect Su Zhenguo to ask so directly, so he simply answered the question neatly. This is not a shameless thing, and the future profits cannot be hidden.
"Do you think oil prices will fall?"
"Sor later. May I ask why the National Development and Reform Commission cares about this matter? Su Cheng looked at Director Mao and Zhu Enbo of the State Reserve Bureau.
The 30-year-old little-eyed man moved his body and said, "We think the price of oil will rise to $45 to $50 in a short period of time, and maintain at $30 in the medium and long term. Therefore, for all considerations, it is necessary to make corresponding adjustments..."
"You mean how many orders?" Su Cheng looked over.
Director Mao laughed and said, "The State Reserve Bureau made a report, and Director Su thought it was worth discussing."
This is a discussion of hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars.
......
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